El Niño to hit rabi crops, next summer may be hottest ever, alerts Met Office

El Nino is an ocean-warming weather pattern that occurs every two to seven years.

The El Niño weather conditions may adversely impact rainfall during the upcoming winter season which, in turn, will affect the rabi crops of wheat. It will thereby make the next summer one of the hottest ever, according to a top weather forecaster in India.

El Niño is likely to be seen in the winter season, DS Pai, a senior scientist of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), said.

El Niño is a weather pattern with the ocean surface temperature rising 4-5 degrees Celsius that occurs every two to seven years.

Winter rainfall is a key component for the growth of rabi crops like wheat, chana and mustard. The El Niño condition was expected to affect the monsoon rainfall in the latter half of this season, but is likely to form earlier than expected.

The latest IMD report states that El Niño will develop from June to August. But, on the other hand, the Climate Prediction Centre of the US government mentioned that the El Niño conditions are present and are further likely to strengthen through the winter season within the northern hemisphere.

The weather office has spoken of a forecast of normal monsoon in this season with 96 percent of the long-period average rainfall but Pai stated that there are chances of monsoon rainfall remaining at the lower end of the forecast.

Expecting the hottest summer next year, Pai further stated that El Niño may only subside in May 2024. Prices of cereals and pulses have begun surging in the country due to the delayed monsoon, though partly because of Cyclone Biparjoy.