BJP maps its way to 400-seat target for LS polls as Sena, NCP factions cross swords in Maharashtra

The MVA alliance was formed after the 2019 Assembly elections when the Shiv Sena, NCP, and Congress came together.

Maharashtra, with its 48 constituencies up for grabs, is set to be a key state to fulfill Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s target of returning to power with 400 seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. In the 2019 elections, the BJP had romped home with 23 seats, while its ally Shiv Sena had won 18 in the state. The NCP had four seats and the Congress just one.

However, factional feud on the opposing side of the political divide has begun attracting all the attention on the state. As regional heavyweights Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar see their parties split, the BJP is watching from the sidelines to make the best use of the rift to emerge as the winner.

It's Sena versus Sena

On June 21, 2022, Eknath Shinde and a group of Sena MLAs rebelled against then CM Uddhav Thackeray. They alleged that the party was losing its identity in the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance of the Congress, NCP, and the undivided Sena. The Uddhav faction, too, passed a resolution sacking Shinde as the leader of the legislature party. After a chain of events, Shinde took oath as the CM of Maharashtra. In January this year, Maharashtra Speaker Rahul Narvekar recognised the Shinde faction as the “real Shiv Sena” while deciding on a set of 54 petitions calling for the disqualification of Sena MLAs on both sides.

Crisis in NCP

The NCP faced a split in July 2023 when Sharad Pawar's nephew, Ajit Pawar, joined the Eknath Shinde-led government along with eight party MLAs. He also joined the NDA coalition and was made Deputy CM.

Ultimately, on February 6, the Election Commission recognised the Ajit Pawar-led faction of the NCP as the official party and granted it the party’s “clock” symbol. The Sharad Pawar camp was given the name “Nationalist Congress Party – Sharadchandra Pawar”.

How can BJP gain?

The Sena and NCP fights dealt a twin blow to the MVA alliance, which was formed after the 2019 Assembly elections when the Shiv Sena, NCP, and Congress came together. The current developments in both parties are likely to hit the coalition forces in the state. For both Thackeray and Pawar, it will be a tough road ahead without the party name and symbol.

Also, the BJP may now win those seats where it was traditionally weak earlier against the NCP and Shiv Sena. There is also uncertainty about how Sharad Pawar will lead the new party forward. Despite being active in politics, Pawar, 84, does not have a stronghold across all regions of the state. The departure of prominent leaders such as Praful Patel and Chhagan Bhujbal may create a split in the NCP vote bank. This, in turn, is likely to help the BJP-led coalition, especially in regions across western Maharashtra.

The BJP gained a stronghold after the Shiv Sena and the NCP parted ways. Not only did the BJP lead a coalition to come to power in the state, but it also weakened the opposition. The BJP leaders have also gained a strong foothold. It is also being said that the Shinde-led Shiv Sena may fare better than the Thackeray-led group since traditionally the Shiv Sena supporters have been against the Congress.

The Narendra Modi-led BJP is eyeing its third consecutive term in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. General elections are expected to be held between April and May to elect 543 members of the Lok Sabha.