Bihar seat-sharing talks: BJP, JD(U) near parity deal as Chirag Paswan’s demands test NDA unity

Bihar polls: BJP, JD(U) near seat-sharing deal, LJP push for bigger share remains key hurdle

With Assembly elections in Bihar just months away, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is in the final stages of seat-sharing talks. Sources cited by The Indian Express indicated that the BJP and the JD(U) are close to an agreement to contest around 100–105 seats each out of the state’s 243 constituencies.

This near parity marks a shift from 2020, when Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) fought 115 seats while the BJP contested 110.

The LJP (RV) demand

The biggest sticking point in the talks remains Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas). According to The Indian Express, the party has been pressing for 40 seats, but is likely to be offered closer to 20.

The BJP is wary of accommodating the demand given that Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustan Awam Morcha (HAM-S) and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) also need space in the alliance. Sources said the possibility of Mukesh Sahani’s Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) switching sides from the RJD-Congress bloc could further complicate the equation.

Why JD(U) insists on parity

Despite its weaker performance in 2020, when it won only 43 seats compared to the BJP’s 74, the JD(U) is unwilling to accept fewer than 100 seats this time.

“The JD(U)’s poor performance last time was largely due to the LJP fielding candidates against it. The party still commands around 10% of Bihar’s votes, especially among the Extremely Backward Classes, and the polls are being fought under Nitish Kumar’s leadership. There’s no question of the JD(U) contesting fewer seats than the BJP,” a senior NDA leader told The Indian Express.

LJP’s Lok Sabha argument

The LJP (RV) is leveraging its strong showing in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, when it won all five seats it contested with a vote share of over 6%, leading in 29 of 30 Assembly segments within those constituencies.

But JD(U) leaders dismiss this as misplaced confidence. “The Lok Sabha elections were fought under Narendra Modi’s leadership. For the Assembly polls, local factors and grassroots strength matter far more,” a senior leader told The Indian Express.

Lessons from 2020

The LJP’s role in the 2020 Assembly elections continues to weigh on the alliance. Despite contesting 135 seats, the then-unified LJP won only one (Matihani). But in 64 constituencies where it finished third or lower, its vote share exceeded the winner’s margin. According to The Indian Express, this directly cost the JD(U) 27 seats.

This time, BJP leaders admit Paswan’s presence needs to be respected given his five Lok Sabha MPs, but insist his party cannot dictate terms.

Pressure tactics and long-term play

Sources told The Indian Express that Paswan’s recent criticism of the Nitish Kumar government and assertions of returning to state politics are aimed at extracting a larger seat share. LJP (RV) leaders, however, claim the party is working on a long-term strategy to secure at least 15% of Bihar’s votes.

For now, NDA insiders say the seat-sharing deal between BJP and JD(U) is nearly final, with the LJP’s demands being the last major obstacle.