Bihar Election 2025: Opinion poll gives NDA definite edge over Mahagathbandhan, predicts big gains for BJP

The BJP could witness significant gains in the Bihar elections, the Times Now-JVC opinion poll has predicted.

The National Democratic Alliance of the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Janata Dal (United) and others may be on track for another term in office with an opinion poll survey predicting a bigger victory for the ruling alliance as compared to the elections five years ago.

According to the Times Now-JVC opinion poll for the upcoming Bihar Assembly elections, the NDA is poised to win 136 seats in the 243-strong Assembly while the Mahagathbandhan led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal and comprising Congress and Left parties could be limited to 75 seats in the state where the majority mark stands at 122.

Within the NDA, the BJP is predicted to make significant gains in the coming elections with their tally projected to increase to 81 from 74 in the last elections. As per the survey, the party is expected to win 64 seats while it holds an advantage in 17 others.

The JD(U) of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, however, may suffer another dent to its tally with the opinion poll predicting wins in 29 seats and an edge in another 2, taking its projected tally to a maximum of 31 seats.

Nitish's party bagged 43 seats in the 2020 polls, which was a drop of 28 seats from its earlier tally of 71. With a projection of another drop of 12 seats, the JD(U) may be left on a much weaker footing if the opinion poll predictions hold true.

Within the Mahagathbandhan, on the other hand, the RJD of Tejashwi and Lalu Prasad Yadav is poised to win 52 seats -- with projections of victory in 37 seats and an advantage in another 15. This would be a significant drop in its tally from the 75 seats it won in the 2020 polls to emerge as the single largest party.

The Congress' tally, on the other hand, could also dip further to 10 seats (8 wins and an edge in 2 seats) from its tally of 19 seats in the 2020 elections.

The Left parties and Others are projected to cumulatively win 13 seats in the best case scenario, as per the Times Now-JVC poll predictions for Bihar telecast on Wednesday evening.

Among other parties who are neither aligned with the NDA or the Mahagathbandhan, the AIMIM is projected to win 3 seats while Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraj Party could make a debut with 2 seats. The Bahujan Samaj Party is projected to win one seat while a tough contest is on cards in 26 seats, the opinion poll projections said.

A region-wise break-up of the survey findings show the NDA ahead in 35 of the seats 49 seats in the Tirhut region while the Mahagthabandhan was poised to win 11 seats and a tough contest on cards in 3 seats.

In the 24 seats in the Seemanchal region, the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan are both projected to win 10 seats each while the AIMIM could bag 3 seats and a tough fight could be on the cards in one seat.

The BJP is set to sweep the Mithila region with the opinion poll projections predicting victory in 31 of the 42 seats for the NDA, 7 seats for the Mahagathbandhan, 1 seat for the Jan Suraj Party and a tough contest in 3 seats.

The Mahagathbandhan is projected to win 24 of the 50 seats in the Magadh region while the NDA may race ahead in 21 seats while 5 seats may see a close fight.

In the 55 seats of Bhojpur, the NDA and Mahagathbandhan are projected to win 24 and 20 seats, respectively while the Jan Suraj Party and the BSP could bag one each. A tough contest is on cards in 9 seats.

The NDA is also ahead in 15 of the 23 seats in the Anga region while the Mahagathbandhan is projected to win 3 seats. Five seats have been earmarked as battleground seats.