Bihar Election 2025: Rise of the new 'M-Y axis' redrawing the state's power dynamics

The Bihar election survey underscores how the state's political battlefield is no longer defined solely by caste.

As Bihar heads into one of its most competitive elections in recent memory, a new political equation, dubbed the "M-Y factor", is quietly disrupting the state's electoral math in the state. This time though, the 'M-Y factor' does not stand for the traditional Muslim-Yadav alliance that has long powered the RJD's fortunes.

Instead, it refers to a new demographic driver -- Mahila (women) and Yuva (youth) voters, whose diverging preferences could determine who emerges the winner in the battle for Bihar come November 14.

According to a new survey by Ascendia Strategies, the 2025 Bihar election is witnessing a sharp generational and gender divide. While male youth voters (18–30 years) show a clear preference for the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) with 41% support, women voters across age groups remain firmly behind the NDA, with 44% choosing the ruling alliance.

Among young men, the Jan Suraaj Party, led by political strategist Prashant Kishor, has emerged as a third force, securing 18% of the youth vote. This disruption could prove crucial in seats where margins were razor-thin in 2020.

By contrast, women voters, especially in the 18–45 age bracket, are consolidating behind the NDA, continuing a trend that began with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's pro-women welfare schemes. Young women (18–30 years) give the NDA a commanding 14-point lead (48% to 34%) over the MGB, suggesting that NDA's continued focus on education, livelihood and welfare delivery remains politically potent.

Ascendia’s analysis suggests a triangular tug of war between the stakeholders in the Bihar election. While the Mahagathbandhan dominates among Muslim and OBC youth, the NDA leads among upper-caste and women voters while Jan Suraaj is drawing young voters from Scheduled Tribes and Dalit communities, cutting into both alliances’ margins.

And this is where things get interesting. As per the survey analysis, the Mahagathbandhan and Jan Suraaj could gain if youth turnout surges. However, a three-way fragmentation of the youth vote could also benefit the NDA. On the other hand, if women turn out in large numbers to vote, the NDA's advantage widens dramatically. In other words, the election outcome may well hinge on whether youth turnout (fragmenting toward MGB/Jan Suraj) can overcome women turnout (consolidating toward NDA), the survey notes.

The survey underscores how Bihar's political battlefield is no longer defined solely by caste. Instead, issues of gender empowerment, employment, and aspirations are driving voter behavior. With over 3 crore women voters and nearly one-third of the electorate under 30, both Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav are recalibrating their campaigns to appeal to these groups.

For Nitish, the challenge is to sustain his 'Sushasan babu' image among women while fending off anti-incumbency among job-seeking youth. For Tejashwi, the task is the reverse NDA's advantage and convert his youth appeal into votes without losing women to Nitish's welfare-driven pitch.

The survey concludes that the 2025 Bihar elections could hinge on turnout balance. "If youth turnout is high, it favors MGB and Jan Suraaj. But if women turnout rises, NDA retains a decisive edge," the report notes.

As the campaign intensifies, both alliances are crafting targeted messaging — from Tejashwi's employment-driven promises to youth and cash handouts to women to NDA's own women-centric welfare schemes and proof of delivery through existing programmes to capture this new M-Y axis.

The old M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) formula may have defined Bihar's past as far as elections go, but the new Mahila-Youth equation could well define its political future.