Analysis | Eye on assembly bypolls, Assam Congress on lookout for new allies after snapping ties with AIUDF

As Tamil Nadu is ready to elect a new government, take a look at an analysis on sitting MLAs based on their financial assets, criminal cases, educational qualifications, and gender representation, published by ADR. (Representative image)

New political equations are likely to emerge in Assam ahead of the bypolls to six assembly seats, three of which were won by the Congress-led grand alliance. The first major development has surfaced in the opposition camp after the Congress parted ways with key allies, the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) earlier this week.

The now-defunct grand alliance called Mahajot secured 50 seats in the March-April elections to the 126-member legislative assembly. Of this, the Congress won 29 - three seats more than 2016 polls - the AIUDF 16, BPF four and the CPI(M) won just one seat.

The byelections will be held in Gossaigaon, Tamulpur, Bhabanipur, Mariani, Majuli and Thowra constituencies although the Election Commission is yet to announce the poll schedule. The polls are necessitated due to the deaths of the sitting MLAs in Gossaigaon and Tamulpur seats in lower Assam.

Former chief minister Sarbananda Sonowal’s Majuli constituency will see fresh election as he was recently inducted into the Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s council of ministers, where he holds the Ports, Shipping and Waterways portfolio.

In Bhabanipur, Mariani and Thowra, the sitting legislators – Phani Talukdar (AIUDF), Rupjyoti Kurmi (Congress) and Sushanta Borgohain (Congress) respectively - have joined the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), necessitating the bypolls.

The Congress-AIUDF split

Officially, the Congress said it was not happy with “the continuous and mysterious praise of the BJP and the chief minister by AIUDF leadership” and this has “affected the public perception of the Congress party”.

At a press a conference in Guwahati, Congress national general secretary Mukul Wasnik said political situations keep evolving and have changed since the assembly polls were held earlier this year.

Perhaps the catch lies in what the grand old party did not want to reveal publicly. The two upper Assam constituencies – Thowra and Mariani - which will see bypolls were Congress strongholds until their sitting MLAs switched sides recently. Congress strategists are believed to be working on a new alliance formula to retain these two seats.

Needless to say, the Congress-AIUDF alliance had never been smooth primarily because the latter, led by perfume baron Badruddin Ajmal, is seen as a party sympathetic to suspected illegal Bangladeshi immigrants, something that was believed to have benefitted the BJP electorally.

The issue of illegal immigrants, irrespective of religion, is deeply linked to the Assamese sub-nationalism and identity politics, and had triggered the six-year anti-foreigner movement in the 1980s. Over the years, regional and national parties have exploited this while key demands included in the 1985 Assam Accord, signed between agitating groups and the Centre, remain unfulfilled.

The Congress, for that matter, also took a strategic decision not to align with AIUDF when Tarun Gogoi ruled the state for three consecutive terms - from 2002-2016. Gogoi himself had snubbed Ajmal in the run-up to the 2006 assembly elections with his famous one-liner, “Who is Badruddin Ajmal?”

The former CM, who passed away in November last year, knew it too well that the Congress must shed its pro-minority image, especially in Assam where the issue of illegal Muslim immigrants could make or break the electoral prospects of any political party.

And Gogoi had managed to convince the party high command that the AIUDF could remain a part of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance at the Centre, but he would prefer to go solo in the state elections. This strategy worked for the Congress in Assam.

Perhaps, the new APCC president Bhupen Bora, is trying to emulate Gogoi’s strategy not just to win the upcoming bypolls, but also to prepare the party for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. But whether this strategy will work this time when the BJP is in a formidable position under the leadership of CM Himanta Biswa Sarma is a million-dollar question.

One of Assam’s leading intellectuals, Dr. Hiren Gohain, has a different take on it. He believes AIUDF has problem with its image, but calling it a “communal party” is not appropriate.

“If they (Congress) work positively, they will get good results and vice versa. However, one thing is important, which was mentioned by former Assam Congress chief Ripun Bora… even I don’t agree with the idea of calling AIUDF a communal party. Yes, they (AIUDF) have problems, but they can’t be called a communal party. But, many of the Congressmen don’t see it that way. They believe the Congress party won’t benefit from this alliance in the bypolls in Assam and that’s why they are snapping the ties with the AIUDF,” Gohain told Moneycontrol.

Tie-up with Akhil Gogoi?

There is a buzz about a potential alliance of the Congress with activist-turned-politician Akhil Gogoi-led Raijor Dal and other like-minded regional parties. Gogoi, who contested from jail and won the prestigious Sivasagar constituency, has indicated he is open to alliance with any party other the BJP and AIUDF.

However, his words and actions are sending confusing signals. His purported remarks such as the “Congress is a setting sun” and “Congress cannot do well under Rahul Gandhi” have irked the national party.

Speaking to Moneycontrol, APCC spokesperson Bobbeeta Sharma said, “The decision whether to join hands (Gogoi’s) Raijor Dal will be taken by the central leaders. However, I would like to stress that cordial relations between two sides are a pre-requisite for an alliance.”

Confirming that the grand alliance formed ahead of the assembly polls is over, Sharma said, “We have taken the decision to sever ties with AIUDF based on feedback from our grassroots workers, who said the alliance, coupled with BJP’s misinformation campaign, had harmed the party.”

She also exuded confidence that Assam has been traditionally Congress stronghold and that the party “will leave no stone unturned” to win seats in the upcoming bypolls.

(Jayanta Kalita is a senior journalist and author based in Delhi. He writes on issues related to India’s Northeast. The views are personal.)