Don't worry, get a Covid vaccine booster shot

Only 27 percent of eligible Indians got a booster shot of Covishield or Covaxxin. Studies show that three shots of these vaccines offer better protection against the Omicron Covid variant. (Illustration by Suneesh K.)

Is India going to see a new wave of Covid-19? And if another surge does happen, how much should we worry about it? Because three years after it triggered the global pandemic that has claimed millions of lives and caused untold misery for all the people of the world, China could once again be putting the world in danger.

There is substantial evidence that the Chinese government was fully aware of the spread of the virus by November 2019 at the very latest, but covered up the news even as its citizens started dying from it. After all, under supreme leader Xi Jinping, China can never admit to any weakness or any chink in its perfect-state armour. Travel to and from China continued unabated and in fact reached historically high levels around the Chinese New Year in late January 2020.

Much has happened since then but in the last six months, even as most of the world moved on, China suffered another outbreak. Or maybe the pandemic had never subsided there. Most Chinese official claims, from its economy to its borders, are fictional, but its Covid statistics would put Schehrezade to shame. Apparently, the virus has killed only about 5,200 people since the pandemic began.

We will never know the real toll; it should be at the very least 100 times more. But what we do know that is that Beijing managed to host the Winter Olympics in February 2022, before returning to its brutal lockdown regime.

Xi and his government went for a zero-Covid strategy, which makes no scientific, social, administrative or humanitarian sense. Beijing’s policy could only have been born of a delusional egotism and a nationalistic pride that bordered on desperation. And now, after zero-Covid utterly failed, it has suddenly decided to lift almost all restrictions. From zero to 100 percent Covid.

Chinese hospitals and crematoriums are overflowing with the ailing and the dead. Since the original broadcasted numbers were themselves a warped fantasy, it is difficult to imagine what the real numbers today are. But Xi cannot admit that the Chinese vaccines are not really effective, that the lockdowns did not work, that the people are fed up with their privations over the last three years, that China’s economic growth is in peril because of his merciless measures. So the world must suffer again.

How much should we Indians worry? The current wave has apparently been caused by the Omicron sub-variant BF.7. All virology logic says that BF.7 should be more infectious than Omicron, but less fatal.

Because this is how evolution has always worked. As biologist Richard Dawkins explained in his seminal book The Selfish Gene, all living beings live to propagate their genes. The species that are successful in doing so, survive; those that fail, become extinct.

It is a matter of debate whether a virus can be classified as a living being. Most experts say no, since they are not made up of cells, cannot keep themselves in a stable state, do not grow (they are born fully formed), and cannot make their own energy. But they do have genes, replicate and adapt to their environment. In fact, replication and propagation seem to be the main point of their existence. Consider the common term “it’s gone viral”. It was Dawkins who invented the word “meme” in his book, from the Greek “mimema”—that which is imitated. He defined “meme” as a “mental virus”.

To survive, the virus needs a host body—just as a meme needs a re-tweeter. If the host dies, the virus dies too. It cannot propagate any more. The history of epidemics tells us that as a virus adapts and mutates, it follows evolutionary logic—it becomes more transmissible and less lethal. We have seen the same pattern working out in the Covid pandemic. The vicious Delta gave way to the more benign—but more infectious—Omicron, and now BF.7, with a higher reproductive index (R0) of 16 or 18.

This means that one infected host can spread the virus to 18 more people, three times higher than BF.7’s parent Omicron. But the data also shows that it has a much lower fatality rate than Omicron, which infected many more people than its parent, the Delta, but killed a far lower percentage of those infected.

The vaccines that India has used—Covishield and Covaxin—were designed to battle the original strain of Covid that appeared in 2019. Since then, the virus has changed shape many times. Though we do not know yet how effective the vaccines are against this BF.7 variant, research indicates that those who took three doses of the vaccines developed considerable immunity to Omicron. Out of India’s eligible population, 97 percent have been administered the first dose; 90 percent have taken the second too. But only 27 percent of eligible Indians have taken the third—booster—dose.

It is thus essential for the Union and all state governments to go into full-throttle vaccine mission mode once more. Many of us have been lazy about getting the booster dose. It’s time to shed our lethargy and complacence and get that jab. India has recorded only a few BF.7 cases till now, but it can spread, given that international travel is now back to pre-Covid-restriction levels. It is likely that the elderly, especially those with comorbidities, will be at higher risk of mortality than young and healthy people, but it is absolutely crucial that we don’t see the confusion, mistakes and political blame games over hospital facilities and oxygen availability that we witnessed during the Delta surge.

According to health ministry officials, the virus usually hits India about 30-35 days after it appears in East Asia. So the countdown has started. BF.7 could appear at our doorsteps in January.

There is no reason to panic. We will have to learn to live with Covid the same way that we live with the flu or that unique Indian thing—“viral fever”. But we should stay prepared. We know what precautions to take. All of us have either lost a loved one to Covid or know someone who has. We need to make sure that their suffering does not go in vain.