Rupee hits record low on strong NDF dollar bids; RBI likely steps in

The dollar index was a tad higher at 108.1, while Asian currencies were down between 0.1% and 1%.

The Indian rupee weakened to an all-time low on Friday, hurt by persistently strong dollar demand in the non-deliverable forwards (NDF) market, while likely intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) capped the currency’s losses.

The rupee declined to 85.3950 to the dollar, eclipsing its previous all-time low of 85.2825 hit on Thursday. The currency was last quoted at 85.39 as of 09:40 a.m. IST.

The local currency has hit record lows in every trading session this week, pressured by broad strength in the dollar alongside a bearish bias on the local currency amid the widening of India’s trade deficit and concerns about slowing growth.

”The pressure on the currency is likely to persist, driven by month-end dollar demand from local oil companies. Thus, we anticipate the USD/INR pair to trade within the range of 85 to 85.50 in the near term,” said Amit Pabari, managing director at FX advisory firm CR Forex.

State-run banks were spotted offering dollars, most likely on behalf of the RBI, traders said, which helped limit the local currency’s losses.

The dollar index was a tad higher at 108.1, while Asian currencies were down between 0.1% and 1%. The greenback has gained over 2% so far this month and is on course for its third monthly gain on the trot.

Expectations about incoming U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies have boosted the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, which have hurt emerging market currencies across the board.

However, the RBI’s frequent dollar-selling interventions have supported the rupee, making it the least volatile among major Asian peers.

The rupee is ”quite likely to extend its decline to or slightly below 85.45 on Friday,” a trader at a state-run bank said.

While the bearish bias on the currency is likely to persist into 2025, it may ”pause slightly,” at 85.50, the trader added.