Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50, Bank Nifty make healthy start to the week?

Nifty Trading Plan for September 15

With an eight-day winning streak and bullish technical and momentum indicators, the Nifty 50 is expected to march toward the 25,250 hurdle, followed by the 25,350 zone in the upcoming sessions, despite intermittent consolidation. On the other hand, support is placed at 25,000, followed by 24,800. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty needs to reclaim and sustain above 54,840 (100-day EMA) for an upward move toward 55,150–55,300. However, 54,650 can be considered immediate support, followed by 54,450, according to experts.

On September 12, the Nifty 50 rose 109 points to 25,114, while the Bank Nifty gained 140 points to 54,809, with market breadth moderately favouring bulls. A total of 1,407 shares advanced, compared to 1,378 declining shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Osho Krishan, Chief Manager - Technical & Derivative Research at Angel One

The Nifty 50 has revealed a constructive ‘Double Bottom’ formation, coinciding with a breakout from a ‘descending trendline’ identified on both the daily and weekly chart structures. This combination suggests the potential for a significant upward movement in the current week.

On the levels front, the intermediate support level is anticipated to reside within the 25,000–24,900 range, which is expected to provide a buffer against potential declines.

Furthermore, the positive crossover of the 20 and 50 DEMA around 24,800 is regarded as a critical support zone from a positional perspective.

At the higher end, intermediate resistance levels are identified around 25,250, followed by a bearish gap located in the 25,340 zone. Nevertheless, given the current technical configuration, the range of 25,500 to 25,600 appears attainable in the near term.

Key Resistance: 25,340, 25,500

Key Support: 25,000, 24,800

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures around 25,000, with a stop-loss of 24,800, and book profits near the 25,350–25,400 zone.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

Nifty closed the last week with 373 points gains. On the weekly chart, the index formed a bullish candle with higher highs and higher lows, closing above the previous week’s high — indicating a positive tone.

The index has been consolidating within the 25,250–24,350 zone for several weeks. A decisive breakout on either side will likely determine the next directional trend.

The 20-day SMA, at 24,811, will serve as a key pivot. Chart signals suggest that a sustained move above 25,250 could spark fresh buying, possibly pushing the index toward 25,500–25,700. Alternatively, a break below 25,000 may lead to selling pressure, pulling the index lower to 24,800–24,500.

For the upcoming week, Nifty is forecasted to trade between 25,700 and 24,500 with a mixed bias. The weekly RSI indicator has turned positive from the 50 level and remains above its reference line, signalling a bullish bias.

Key Resistance: 25,250, 25,400

Key Support: 25,000, 24,850

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures around 25,050, with a stop-loss of 24,950, targeting 25,250–25,350.

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments

Nifty has finally tested the neckline of the 25-day double bottom pattern at 25,145, a key bullish trigger. A sustained close above 25,145 will set the stage for a quick move toward the weekly swing high of 25,246.

A further breakout above 25,250 would confirm strength and open the path toward fresh all-time highs, with the next resistance placed at 25,548.

The broader trend remains constructive. Weekly moving averages are bullish, and daily averages are now turning supportive as well. Importantly, the index has reclaimed the quarterly VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price), with the monthly VWAP aligning with daily and weekly averages — strengthening the bullish structure.

On the downside, immediate support is placed at 24,900, where the quarterly VWAP and 10-day EMA converge, making it a critical level for bulls to defend.

Key Resistance: 25,145, 25,246

Key Support: 24,900, 24,760

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on breakout above 25,145, with stop-loss below 25,095, for a target of 25,246.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Osho Krishan, Chief Manager - Technical & Derivative Research at Angel One

The banking index has rebounded from the support zone of 53,600–53,500 and successfully reclaimed the 20-DEMA on the weekly chart. With this, the index is just shy of the earlier support-turned-resistance zone around 54,900–55,000.

A sustained move beyond this hurdle would be a constructive signal for further strength.

In the recent upmove, PSU banks and financial names have led the rally, while private sector peers, except Axis Bank, are yet to participate meaningfully. This divergence makes the banking space one to watch closely, as any supportive triggers could spark momentum-based buying, which has been lacking over the past couple of weeks.

Looking ahead, the 54,500–54,400 zone is expected to act as immediate support, while follow-through buying beyond 55,000 could reignite fresh momentum in the broader market.

Key Resistance: 55,000, 55,600

Key Support: 54,400, 54,000

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures around 54,500, with a stop-loss of 54,200, targeting 55,600.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

Bank Nifty achieved a weekly gain of 695 points. On the weekly chart, the index formed a bullish candle, which remained within the larger bearish candle from the last week of August. Recent weekly candles have also stayed within this range, further highlighting the absence of clear momentum.

The index is currently above the crucial support level at 53,500. A breakdown below this level could lead to accelerated declines, while sustained trading above 53,500 may trigger a relief rally.

A move above 55,000 could pave the way toward 55,500–56,150. Conversely, a drop below 54,500 might result in declines towards 54,000 and 53,500.

For the upcoming week, Bank Nifty is anticipated to trade within the range of 56,150 to 53,500, reflecting a mixed bias.

The weekly RSI is nearing a bullish crossover, and the Stochastic has turned positive from oversold levels, signalling a potential reversal.

Key Resistance: 55,000, 55,250

Key Support: 54,650, 54,450

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures around 54,650, with a stop-loss of 54,460, targeting 55,000–55,200.

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments

Bank Nifty continues to remain relatively weak, spending the last two weeks trading almost entirely within the selling climax candle formed in the week ending 25th August. This highlights ongoing supply pressure and a lack of decisive bullish momentum.

For the week ahead, rallies toward 55,000 are expected to encounter heavy resistance, as this zone aligns with both the weekly and daily fair value areas. Only a sustained move above 55,000 would shift sentiment, paving the way for a test of the quarterly VWAP near 56,000 and the weekly swing high at 56,156.

Until then, the bias stays cautious, with 55,000 acting as a critical supply barrier that bulls must overcome to regain control.

Key Resistance: 55,000, 55,300

Key Support: 54,400, 53,900

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on breakout above 54,850, targeting 56,000–56,156.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.