Hold Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals; target of Rs 136: Prabhudas Lilladher

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Prabhudas Lilladher's research report on Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals

Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals (MRPL) reported better-than-estimated results with an EBITDA of Rs11.3bn in Q4FY25 (up 9.6% QoQ; PLe:Rs9.7bn, cons est EBITDA: Rs8.4bn). PAT came in at Rs3.6bn (up 19.4% QoQ; PLe:Rs2.6bn, cons est:Rs1.9bn). Reported GRM stood at US$6.2/bbl with an inventory gain of US$0.42/bbl. Throughput came in flat QoQ at 4.6mmt. Average Singapore GRM in Q1FY26-TD continues to remain soft at ~US$3/bbl amid weakness in product cracks. While this near-term weakness is likely to persist, we believe GRMs will rebound to US$5-7/bbl in the long term. Accordingly, we build in a GRM of US$7.5/7.5/bbl for FY26/27E.

Outlook

The stock is currently trading at 9.4/10x FY26/27 EPS and 5.8/5.4x FY26/27E EV/EBITDA. We re-rate the stock from ‘SELL’ to ‘HOLD’ with a TP of Rs136 based on 5x FY27 EV/EBITDA (earlier 4x FY27 EV/EBITDA) and adding the option value ofRs45 to its chemicals foray.

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Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals - 29042025 - prabhu