Prabhudas Lilladher's research report on Gujarat State Petronet
Gujarat State Petronet (GSPL) reported an EBITDA of Rs1.9bn (down 35.9% QoQ, PLe: Rs2.9bn, BBGe: Rs2.3bn). PAT came in at Rs3.9bn (up 83.6%QoQ, PLe: Rs3bn, BBGe: Rs2.8bn). Growth in PAT was on account of ~9x rise in other income. Total volume declined 1.7% QoQ and 18.4% YoY primarily due to decline in CGD, power and fertilizer volumes. Going ahead, we build in 7% CAGR volume growth over FY25-27E with an implied tariff of Rs1,129/mscm for FY26/27E. The stock is currently trading at 23.9/22.1x FY25/26 EPS.
Outlook
Maintain ‘HOLD’ rating with a TP of Rs380. Investments in Gujarat Gas (54.2% stake) and Sabarmati Gas (27.5% stake) at a 25% holding discount provide a valuation of Rs271, and valuing the core business at 8x avg FY26-27E adj EPS at Rs109, we arrive at a TP of Rs 380.
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