Motilal Oswal's research report on ONGC
ONGC’s reported EBITDA stood at INR182b (flat YoY) in 2QFY25, in line with our estimate. PAT was 30% above our estimate, mainly aided by higher other income. In the conference call, the management highlighted that gas from new wells from nominated blocks will be priced at 12% slope to the Indian crude basket price. The management also expressed confidence that ONGC Petro-Additions Limited (OPaL) will see a turnaround in FY26 amid lower interest costs and lower-priced feedstock gas. While gas from KG 98/2 asset is set to ramp up by FY25 end, the management has reduced overall production volume guidance (standalone + JV) for FY26/FY27 to 44.9/46.2mmtoe (from 46.5/49mmtoe for FY26/FY27).
Outlook
We value the standalone business at 8x Dec’26E adj. EPS of INR30 and add the value of investments to arrive at a TP of INR330, implying 29% potential upside. We reiterate our BUY rating on the stock.
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