Motilal Oswal's research report on One 97 Communications
Paytm reported a net loss of INR2.9b (our est. INR2.8b loss) in 2QFY24. Total revenue grew 32% YoY/8% QoQ to INR25.2b (in line), supported by healthy growth in GMV, disbursements, and addition of subscription devices. Net payment margin grew 60% YoY/ 9% QoQ to INR7.1b in 2QFY24, which, along with healthy financial services revenue, resulted in improvements in contribution margin to ~57%. We revise our estimates slightly upwards and expect Paytm to report EBITDA of INR7.9b by FY25 vs. earlier estimate of INR7.8b. We continue to believe that Paytm will achieve earnings breakeven in FY25 and we estimate net earnings to rise sharply from FY26E onwards. We retain our BUY rating.
Outlook
We value Paytm based on 20x FY28E EV/EBITDA and discount the same to FY25E taking a discount rate of ~15%. We thus value the stock at INR1,160, which implies 5.3x FY25E P/Sales.
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