The downward movement, along with a lower high-lower low formation, continued for the second consecutive session on October 31, especially following a strong move on October 29, signaling bearish sentiment. According to experts, the Nifty 50 might rebound to the 24,300-24,400 zone on the Muhurat trading day, but sustainability is key to watch, considering the overall negative sentiment amid caution ahead of the US elections and the Fed's interest rate decision next week. Support is placed at 24,000, experts said. The Bank Nifty is likely to face resistance at 51,700 (50-day EMA) on the upside; however, the 51,100-51,000 range may act as a support zone, according to experts.
On Thursday, the Nifty 50 closed at 24,205, down 136 points, while the Bank Nifty dropped 332 points to 51,475, despite market breadth favouring bulls. About 1,615 shares gained against 886 declining shares on the NSE.
Nifty Outlook and Strategy
Chandan Taparia, Head - Equity Derivatives & Technicals, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services
The Nifty index has been facing sustained selling pressure from higher levels. It traded sideways within a 350-point range over the past four sessions but failed to break through the resistance at 24,500. On the weekly chart, the index formed a Gravestone Doji candle, indicating selling pressure at higher levels. It formed a bearish candle on the daily chart and broke its higher lows formation from the last three sessions. As long as it holds below the 24,500 zone, some weakness could be expected toward the 23,900 and then 23,750 levels, while hurdles are placed at 24,500 and 24,700 levels.
Key Resistance: 24,500, 24,700
Key Support: 23,900, 23,750
Strategy: Sell on a bounce, targeting downside levels of 24,000 and 23,800, with a stop-loss placed above 24,500 on a closing basis.
Hardik Matalia, Derivative Analyst at Choice Broking
On the daily chart, the Nifty index displayed volatility, forming a strong bearish candle that signals selling pressure at higher levels. The index closed near the 24,200 mark, indicating potential weakness in the near term. This pattern highlights the dominance of sellers over buyers at resistance points, reinforcing a negative outlook. After multiple attempts, the index failed to surpass the 24,500 level, suggesting a bearish trend. If it continues to trade below the 24,200 mark, further downside could be seen, potentially targeting the 24,000–23,800 range. Resistance is now identified at the 24,500–24,700 levels, where renewed selling pressure could emerge.
A “sell-on-rise” strategy remains advisable, with stop-losses placed above these resistance levels. Traders are advised to avoid long positions unless the index decisively breaks above the 24,800 level, as downside risk persists. In this volatile environment, exercising caution and maintaining strict risk management practices are essential.
Key Resistance: 24,500, 24,700
Key Support: 24,000, 23,800
Strategy: Sell on a rise near the 24,500 level, with a stop-loss of 24,800 on a closing basis, targeting 24,000 and 23,800 levels.
Virat Jagad, Technical Research Analyst at Bonanza
The Nifty is trading in a bearish setup, forming a lower high, lower low pattern on the daily chart, indicating that bears are in control. The index is currently finding support around the 24,200 level; a break below this mark could trigger further selling pressure. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is moving toward the oversold region, confirming the weakening momentum. Overall, these factors suggest a shift towards negative sentiment, with the potential for additional downside in the near term.
Key Resistance: 24,300, 24,500
Key Support: 24,000, 23,700
Strategy: Sell below 24,200, with a stop-loss of 24,300, targeting 24,000.
Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning
Chandan Taparia, Head - Equity Derivatives & Technicals, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services
The Bank Nifty formed a small bearish candle on the daily scale and negated the formation of higher lows after three sessions. As long as it holds below the 52,000 zone, some weakness could be seen toward the 51,000 and then 50,750 levels, while hurdles are placed at 52,000 and 52,250 zones.
Key Resistance: 52,000, 52,250
Key Support: 51,000, 50,750
Strategy: Sell on a bounce with a hurdle at 52,000, targeting downside levels toward 51,000 and 50,750.
Hardik Matalia, Derivative Analyst at Choice Broking
The Bank Nifty opened with a gap down and traded negatively, closing below the 51,500 mark, signaling a bearish outlook. On the daily chart, the index formed a Doji candle, highlighting indecision between buyers and sellers and suggesting a balance of forces, with neither side firmly in control. Additionally, the index struggled to hold above its short-term (20-day) and medium-term (50-day) exponential moving averages (EMA), pointing to underlying weakness. Key support levels are situated at 51,200 and 51,000; a breakdown below these could lead to additional selling pressure, potentially driving the index down toward the 50,400–50,000 range. On the upside, the 51,700–51,900 range is expected to act as a "sell-on-rise" zone as long as the index remains below the 52,000 level. Traders should monitor these levels closely, as movements around them will be crucial in determining the next directional trend.
Key Resistance: 51,700, 51,900
Key Support: 51,200, 51,000
Strategy: Sell on a rise near the 51,800 level, with a stop-loss of 52,000 on a closing basis, targeting 51,200 and 51,000 levels.
Virat Jagad, Technical Research Analyst at Bonanza
The Bank Nifty has been consolidating over the past 20 sessions within a range of 50,500 to 52,500. A breakout beyond this range is needed for further trend confirmation. On the daily chart, a small negative candle with long upper shadows reflects bearish sentiment among traders. The RSI is near the midline, supporting the ongoing range-bound movement. Additionally, the Bank Nifty is trading around its major EMAs, further confirming the consolidation phase in the index.
Key Resistance: 51,700, 52,000
Key Support: 51,100, 50,800
Strategy: Sell the 52,500 strike Call and the 50,500 strike Put for the November series expiry.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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