Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50 protect 25,150, Bank Nifty hold above 55,000 amid rangebound trading?

Nifty Trading Plan for September 23

The Nifty 50 corrected about 300 points from its recent peak but still traded well above all key moving averages. It has defended 25,150 intraday (the breakout level for the recent rally) despite the second day of correction. If the index stays above it, renewed buying interest can drive the index toward 25,450–25,500; however, a decisive fall below it could drag the index toward 25,000. Meanwhile, 55,000 is expected to be the support zone for the Bank Nifty, while 56,000 is likely to be the resistance area, according to experts.

On September 22, the Nifty 50 dropped 125 points to 25,202, while the Bank Nifty corrected 174 points to 55,285, with market breadth favouring bears. About 1,790 shares declined compared to 1,037 advancing shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities

The Nifty has closed in negative territory for the 2nd consecutive day, indicating selling pressure at higher levels. There are significant Call additions at higher levels, and now the PCR (Put-Call Ratio) has fallen to 0.57, which is bearish; however, it is still not oversold. The 25,300 Call strike witnessed huge additions, hence that is an immediate resistance.

The 25,500 strike, however, has the highest Call base, which is a short- to medium-term resistance, and the fresh leg up will be confirmed only above it. The 25,200 strike has the highest Put base, so it is the immediate support, and below that, the 25,000 strike is the next important support. The range for this weekly expiry is 25,000 to 25,300 levels, and only a break beyond this will lead to a further trend, which is 24,800 to 25,500 levels.

The India VIX has closed in positive territory for the 2nd consecutive day, signalling short-term volatility. The IVs (implied volatility) are still trading low, below 10 levels, with IVP and IVR at 4 and 4.32 levels respectively, indicating some more volatility in the near term.

Key Resistance: 25,300, 25,500

Key Support: 25,000, 24,800

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips near 25,000, with a stop-loss below 24,800, targeting 25,300 and 25,500.

Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi

Currently, Nifty is trading comfortably above the 50- and 100-DEMA, highlighting strength in the broader uptrend. However, on the daily chart, the index has witnessed correction for the last two sessions, indicating short-term profit booking. In the most recent session, Nifty attempted to test the 25,132.66 level, which coincides with the 0.382 retracement of its previous up-move.

From an hourly perspective, the index is likely to stabilize in the 25,100–25,150 zone, an area that also aligns with the previous breakout level. Holding above this zone will be crucial for the bulls to regain momentum, while any sustained weakness below it may extend the consolidation phase. Overall, the trend remains constructive as long as support holds.

Key Resistance: 25,500, 25,600

Key Support: 25,100, 25,150

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures in the 25,150–25,250 zone, with a stop-loss of 25,000, targeting 25,550.

Shitij Gandhi, Senior Research Analyst at SMC Global Securities

Despite Monday's dip, the broader structure remains constructive, with the index still holding well above the crucial 25,000 mark, with short-term moving averages lending support. The near-term bias for Nifty remains cautiously bullish as long as the index holds above the 25,000 mark. However, resistance at 25,500 continues to cap upside momentum, and traders may adopt a buy-on-dips strategy.

Key Resistance: 25,400, 25,500

Key Support: 25,200, 25,000

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips near 25,200, with a stop-loss below 25,000, targeting 25,500.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities

The Bank Nifty was initially trading with a positive bias in the last trading session, thus providing support to the Nifty on a day when the Nifty IT Index was down by more than 2 percent initially. In the second half of the trading session, the Bank Nifty couldn’t sustain at higher levels and made a fresh intraday low, thus adding pressure to the Nifty as well.

On the upside, 56,000 is a critical resistance for this F&O series, whereas the 55,000 strike Put has the highest open interest, hence that is an immediate support. So, the range for the index is 55,000 to 56,000, and until these levels are held, the overall bias is sideways to positive.

The Nifty PSU Bank Index is performing better than the Nifty Private Sector Index, so if private banks bounce back, then the index may move up quickly; else, it may consolidate in this range for this F&O series.

Key Resistance: 56,000, 56,500

Key Support: 55,000, 54,500

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips near 55,000, with a stop-loss of 54,500, targeting 56,000 and 56,500.

Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi

Bank Nifty has delivered an impressive rally of nearly 2,273 points over the past three weeks after forming a strong base near its 200-DEMA. However, at the current juncture, the index has been under correction for the last two sessions, dragging it close to the 55,300 mark. This level is significant as it coincides with the 23.6% retracement of the recent up-move, making it a crucial support area.

Going forward, we anticipate base creation in the 55,000–55,300 zone, which is expected to act as a consolidation band before the next leg of the rally. Interestingly, the 100-DEMA also aligns with this support zone, further reinforcing the probability of sustainable base formation in the near term.

Key Resistance: 56,000, 56,300

Key Support: 55,200, 55,000

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures in the 55,200–55,300 zone, with a stop-loss of 54,900, targeting 56,000.

Shitij Gandhi, Senior Research Analyst at SMC Global Securities

The near-term outlook remains cautiously positive with some range-bound moves for the banking index. However, bulls need a firm breakout above the 55,800 level to regain control, while failure to defend 55,000 could tilt momentum back toward the bears. Until then, sideways action is likely to dominate.

Key Resistance: 55,800, 56,000

Key Support: 55,200, 55,000

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips near 55,300, with a stop-loss below 55,000, targeting 55,800.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.