Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50 hit August high, Bank Nifty touch 55,000 after 7-day rally?

Nifty Trading Plan for September 12

The Nifty 50 hit a three-week high on Thursday and closed above 25,000 for the first time since August 21. The consistent uptrend, along with healthy technical and momentum indicators, suggests a bullish trend ahead. If the Nifty sustains above 25,000, the next target to watch is 25,150 (August high), followed by 25,250 as key hurdle. However, the 24,900–24,800 range could act as a key support zone. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty also seems to be entering a bullish phase with gaining strength in momentum indicators. However, it needs to clear the 54,850 and 55,200 hurdles for confirmation. The immediate support is at 54,400, followed by 54,000, experts said.

On September 11, the Nifty 50 advanced by 32 points to 25,006, while the Bank Nifty rose by 134 points to 54,670, despite a slightly weak market breadth. A total of 1,406 shares were supported by bears, compared to 1,360 shares backed by bulls on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Jay Mehta, Technical Research, at JM Financial Services

The Nifty 50 has recently demonstrated bullish momentum, trading above its key EMAs with a positive upward slope. The index recently broke out of a falling trendline, which was formed by the highs on June 30 and August 21. This breakout occurred with a gap-up on September 10. However, the breakout candle itself was a "spinning top," signaling market indecision. For this bullish momentum to continue strongly, the index needs a sustained move and a close above 25,037.

Immediate resistance is expected between 25,150 and 25,160. Both the RSI and MACD momentum indicators are in the bullish zone, with a positive crossover, supporting the current upward bias. Looking at the weekly chart, the RSI has formed a bullish double bottom at the 50 level.

As long as the Nifty stays above its recent low and the weekly RSI holds above 50, the overall outlook remains positive to sideways. A fall below the gap-up level of 24,857 could lead to a decline toward 24,700 and then 24,600. On the other hand, a breakthrough above 25,160 could open the door for higher targets of 25,400 and 25,600.

Key Resistance: 25,160, 25,250, 25,400

Key Support: 24,850, 24,750, 24,600

Strategy: Initiate a buy position after the Nifty decisively breaches 25,037. Add to this position if the price closes above 25,160. One can also consider buying on dips in the range of 24,750–24,800, setting a stop-loss at 24,600.

Hardik Matalia, Derivative Analyst at Choice Broking

On the daily chart, the Nifty has formed a strong bullish-bodied candle with a minor upper wick, indicating sustained buying momentum, along with some profit booking at higher levels. On the downside, 25,000 will now act as an immediate support level, followed by the 24,900–24,800 zone as a strong support area.

On the upside, immediate resistance is placed around 25,100, followed by a strong hurdle at 25,200. A decisive move and sustained close above these resistance levels would be crucial to trigger fresh buying momentum towards the 25,500 mark.

Key Resistance: 25,100, 25,200

Key Support: 25,000, 24,900

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures at the 25,110 level for the target of 25,300–25,500, with a stop-loss of 24,950 on a closing basis.

Riyank Arora, Technical Analyst at Mehta Equities

The Nifty is trading around its important resistance mark of 25,050 and immediate support mark of 24,900. Looking at the current trend, any move above 25,050 should trigger a potential upside move towards 25,200 and 25,250 levels. The base trend remains positive, and one should focus on buying the dips.

Key Resistance: 25,050

Key Support: 24,900

Strategy: Buy Nifty September Futures above 25,125, with a stop-loss of 25,000, targeting 25,250 and 25,300.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Jay Mehta, Technical Research, at JM Financial Services

Bank Nifty remains structurally weaker compared to Nifty. It is positive to note that it has established a short-term and strong base at its 200-day EMA before rallying by nearly 1,200 points in recent sessions. The index is now facing strong resistance from the 50- and 100-day EMAs. A bearish crossover between the 20- and 50-day EMAs, as well as the 20- and 100-day EMAs, suggests significant hurdles for any upward movement.

While the daily RSI is heading higher and trading at the 47 level, and the MACD has a positive crossover below the centerline, indicating the price is building momentum but not yet very strong, the weekly momentum indicator suggests that a sideways to mildly bearish trend may continue. Volatility indicators point to increased near-term fluctuations, and trend indicators are leaning bearish-to-neutral.

Key Resistance: 55,000, 55,185, 56,160

Key Support: 54,280, 54,000, 53,600

Strategy: Sell on rallies near 54,900 and 55,150. Aggressive traders can take long positions with a stop-loss below 54,000, targeting 54,800–54,900. Conservative buyers should wait for a breakout above 55,185 to go long, with targets of 56,160 and 56,300.

Hardik Matalia, Derivative Analyst at Choice Broking

On the downside, 54,500 will act as immediate support, followed by a strong support zone between 54,300–54,000. On the upside, the 54,800–55,000 zone is the immediate target, and a decisive break above this level could open the path toward 55,300–55,500. Traders may consider buying opportunities only above the immediate resistance zone for short-term gains, while remaining cautious and maintaining strict stop-losses amid ongoing market volatility.

Key Resistance: 54,800, 55,000

Key Support: 54,500-54,300

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures at 54,880 levels, adding up to 54,600 for the target of 55,300–55,500, with a stop-loss of 54,300 on a closing basis.

Riyank Arora, Technical Analyst at Mehta Equities

Bank Nifty is trading around its important resistance mark of 54,750 and immediate support mark of 54,400. Looking at the current trend, any move above 54,750 should trigger a potential upside move towards 55,250 and 55,500 levels. Given the current trend, any move above the said resistance level should trigger a major upside move.

Key Resistance: 54,750

Key Support: 54,400

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty September Futures above 55,000, with a stop-loss of 54,400, targeting 55,400 and 55,700.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.