Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50, Bank Nifty hold Friday's lows amid persistent bearish sentiment?

Nifty Trading Plan for September 29

The bearish sentiment prevailed in the market, backed by weakness in technical and momentum indicators. After a sharp down move, there may be a possibility of a rebound in the upcoming session, but sustainability is the key to watch. If the Nifty 50 holds 24,600 (previous day’s low), an uptrend toward 24,800–25,000 can be possible, but a decisive fall below it can open the door for 24,400. Meanwhile, if the Bank Nifty defends the previous day’s low (54,300), the upward journey toward 54,700–55,000 can’t be ruled out, but breaking below it can drive down the banking index to 54,000 and 53,800, experts said.

On September 26, the Nifty 50 slipped 236 points (0.95 percent) to 24,655, while the Bank Nifty plunged 587 points (1.07 percent) to 54,389, with market breadth consistently favouring bears. About 2,337 shares were under pressure compared to 460 advancing shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Osho Krishan, Chief Manager - Technical & Derivative Research at Angel One

The benchmark Nifty 50 experienced its largest weekly decline of the current fiscal year, plummeting by more than 2.5 percent, undermining investor sentiment and steering the market back toward a bearish perspective. Major technical support levels were successively breached, resulting from a sustained selling trend that has persisted over six consecutive sessions.

The Nifty 50 index has plunged below the 20-, 50-, and 100-DEMA, all within a week's time frame, indicating the carnage of the bears. From here on, most of the indicators have turned bearish, and looking at the momentum, a positive trigger could only provide a brief breather to the markets.

On the levels front, 24,550–24,500 is in proximity and is likely to cushion the index in the coming period, while the sacrosanct support is placed around 24,430–24,400 (recent swing low). On the higher end, a series of resistances can be seen from the 24,850–25,000 zone, and a sustained breakthrough could only rejuvenate bullish momentum. Until then, it is better to keep positions light.

Key Resistance: 24,850, 25,000

Key Support: 24,550, 24,430

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips to 24,550, with a stop-loss of 24,400, booking profits near 24,850–25,000.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

The Nifty formed a long bearish candle on the weekly chart. The index is facing strong resistance at the 25,500 trendline, and any rally is likely to be met with selling. Key support is located in the 24,350 to 24,150 range, which aligns with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

For the week ahead, the Nifty could see buying interest if it moves above 24,850, potentially reaching 25,000 to 25,200. However, a drop below 24,500 could trigger more selling, pushing the index toward 24,350 to 24,000. Technical indicators, such as the RSI, have also turned negative, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

Key Resistance: 24,750, 24,900

Key Support: 24,500, 24,350

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures around 24,800, with a stop-loss of 24,950, targeting 24,600–24,500.

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments

The failure to sustain above the weekly order block has turned the structure weak, with the index now looking decisively bearish. On the downside, the daily swing low at 24,621 is the first key support. A close below this level will likely extend the decline toward the recent weekly swing low zone of 24,400–24,350. On the upside, immediate resistance lies at 24,820, where supply is expected to cap any short-lived bounce.

While the 10-, 20-, and 50-day moving averages are still stacked bullishly, the 10-day EMA is close to crossing below the 20-day EMA. If this bearish crossover materializes, it will add further downside pressure on bulls and confirm weakening momentum. The bias remains cautious, with support tests likely before stability returns.

Key Resistance: 24,725, 24,800

Key Support: 24,621, 24,400

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures on rallies towards 24,725–24,800, for a target of 24,400.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Osho Krishan, Chief Manager - Technical & Derivative Research at Angel One

Bank Nifty ended its three-week winning streak, and the sharp decline has erased most of the gains seen since the start of September. On the daily chart, the index closed around the golden retracement (61.8%) of the entire rally from 53,500 to 55,800. Considering Friday’s sharp sell-off momentum and a bearish crossover in RSI Smoothened, weakness may extend in the near term. That said, volatility is expected to remain elevated, and with intraday indicators in the deep oversold zone, an in-between surprise bounce-back cannot be ruled out ahead of the monthly expiry scheduled on Tuesday.

As far as levels are concerned, immediate resistance is placed in the zone of 54,800–55,000, while the first sign of bullish resumption would only come on a move back above 55,200, reclaiming all key moving averages. On the flip side, the 78.6% retracement near 54,000 aligns with a key psychological level that becomes particularly important to defend during expiry. A break below this could drag the index toward the September lows around 53,500. Traders are hence advised to stay watchful of these key levels and avoid complacency.

Key Resistance: 54,800, 55,000

Key Support: 54,000, 53,500

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures around 54,000, with a stop-loss of 53,700, for a potential target of 55,000.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

Bank Nifty lost 1,070 points for the week. The weekly chart shows a strong bearish candle, confirming the ongoing weakness. Despite this, it actually held up better than the Nifty. We expect it to consolidate within the 56,000–53,500 range.

Looking ahead, a decisive move above 54,700 could bring in buyers, pushing the index toward 55,000–55,500. On the other hand, a drop below 54,000 might trigger more selling, with the next targets at 53,500–53,000. Overall, Bank Nifty is likely to trade with a mixed bias within the broader 55,500–53,000 range. The weekly RSI is also in negative territory, supporting a bearish undertone.

Key Resistance: 54,550, 54,700

Key Support: 54,250, 54,000

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures around 54,650 with a stop-loss of 54,850, targeting 54,300–54,150.

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments

The Bank Nifty structure now favours the bears. The only near-term relief for bulls lies in a sweep of last week’s low at 54,310. Failing that, a sustained move below 54,300 will likely trigger follow-through selling, dragging the index toward the weekly swing low of 53,561.

On the upside, any bounce will face stiff resistance in the 54,852 zone, and only a decisive close above this level would allow the index to regain some bullish momentum.

Adding to the pressure, the daily moving averages have already formed a bearish crossover, signaling that upside attempts may remain capped in the near term. For now, the path of least resistance remains lower unless bulls manage to defend 54,300 with conviction.

Key Resistance: 54,852

Key Support: 54,300

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