The shares of oil refiners tumbled on June 24 as crude oil prices significantly dropped amid buzz over a possible ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Brent crude dropped significantly to hold below the $70 per barrel-mark.
Oil India shares tumbled nearly 5 percent to trade at Rs 448.75 apiece, while ONGC shares fell nearly 3 percent to hover around Rs 244 apiece. Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals (MRPL) and Chennai Petroleum Corporation shares dropped over 2 percent. This comes as Brent Crude futures were hovering around $69 per barrel.
US President Donald Trump on June 23 announced that Israel and Iran have reached a "complete and total" ceasefire agreement. "Congratulations to everyone! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a complete and total ceasefire (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the war will be considered, ENDED!" he wrote in a post on Truth Social.
Iran however discredited the claim, with Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei saying, "Those who know the Iranian people and their history know that the Iranian nation isn’t a nation that surrenders."
However, Iran’s Foreign Ministry Seyed Abbas Araghchi later took to X to say, "As of now, there is NO "agreement" on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations. However, provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4 am Tehran time, we have no intention to continue our response afterwards." Investors took this response as a hint towards ceasefire.
"The military operations of our powerful Armed Forces to punish Israel for its aggression continued until the very last minute, at 4am. Together with all Iranians, I thank our brave Armed Forces who remain ready to defend our dear country until their last drop of blood, and who responded to any attack by the enemy until the very last minute," he said in another post later.
The military operations of our powerful Armed Forces to punish Israel for its aggression continued until the very last minute, at 4am.Together with all Iranians, I thank our brave Armed Forces who remain ready to defend our dear country until their last drop of blood, and who…
— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) June 24, 2025
The increased chances of a ceasefire in the oil rich Middle-East cooled down oil prices significantly, after a record surge. Shares of oil marketing companies like Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL), Bharat Petroleum (BPCL) and Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) recorded significant gains as a result, as the price of its key raw material got cheaper which is likely in turn to benefit their margins.
However, the shares of oil refiners fell amid the fall in oil prices. Profit booking at elevated levels may have also pulled down the stocks further. This comes after the stocks saw significant surge, on the back of shooting oil prices.
"The outbreak of the Israel–Iran conflict has reshaped near-term oil and oil product fundamentals. A geopolitically charged environment, coupled with tight diesel and ATF markets, has materially boosted refining margins across Europe, the U.S., and Asia. The Indian refiners who have a higher distillate slate, sourcing flexibility, and improving utilization, are primed to monetize this margin cycle," Yes Securities had said during the earlier rally.
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