Closing Bell| Sensex ends 158 pts higher, Nifty above 25,000; Adani Ports, Tata Steel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Ultratech Cement top gainers

Today, the benchmark indices witnessed a volatile trading session. After a roller coaster activity, the Nifty ends 72 points higher, while the Sensex was up by 158 points. Among sectors, the PSU Bank index gained the most, rallying 1.40 percent, whereas the Defense index lost the most, shed 2.35 percent. Technically, on the backdrop of strong global sentiment, our market opened with a gap up, but once again, it registered selling pressure at higher levels. From the day's highest level, the market corrected over 300/1000 points. It also formed a bearish candle on the daily charts, indicating temporary weakness. However, the medium-term outlook of the market remains positive.

We are of the view that 25,000/82000 would act as a key support zone for day traders. Above this level, we could expect a technical bounce back up to 25,200–25,300/82500-83000. On the flip side, if the market falls below 25,000/82000, it could extend the correction up to 24,850–24,800/81600-81500. The current market texture is volatile and non-directional; hence, level-based trading would be the ideal strategy for day traders.

Initial gains in the domestic market, driven by the ceasefire announcement and sharp drop in crude prices, were short-lived as renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East unsettled investor sentiment. Adding to the uncertainty was heightened volatility due to expiry day dynamics. Although the market attempted to break out of its recent consolidation range, persistent global risks continue to impede momentum. Going forward, the sustainability of an uptrend will hinge on the strength of domestic earnings, with optimism surrounding the upcoming Q1 results supported by favourable domestic macroeconomics.

It turned out to be an eventful day for market participants, as the benchmark index witnessed sharp swings in both directions before finally closing with marginal gains. Initially, sentiment was buoyed by reports of a potential ceasefire between Iran and Israel, along with a sharp decline in crude oil prices. However, concerns resurfaced in the latter half following reports of a possible ceasefire violation by Iran, which led to a pullback and erased most of the early gains. Eventually, the Nifty ended with marginal gains, up 0.3% at the 25,044.35 level.

Meanwhile, most sectors ended in the green, with metals, financials, and banking stocks leading the gains. The broader markets also advanced, with both the midcap and smallcap indices rising over half a percent.

The Nifty's failure to surpass the 25,200-resistance level indicates that the bears are still active and not ready to give in. However, rotational buying across key sectors, along with notable strength in the midcap and smallcap segments, continues to offer trading opportunities. Participants are advised to maintain a positive yet cautious stance, with a strong focus on stock selection driven by sectoral trends.

Benchmark indices ended higher on Tuesday, with the Sensex rising 158 points and the Nifty closing above the 25,000 mark. Adani Ports, Tata Steel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Ultratech Cement emerged as the top gainers.

Among sectoral indices, Nifty PSU Bank led the rally with a 1.5 percent gain, followed by Nifty Metal, which added 1 percent. Nifty Bank, Auto, Private Bank, and Consumer Durables also advanced, each rising 0.7 percent. Meanwhile, Nifty Media was the sole major laggard, slipping 1 percent.

QIB – 7 times

NII – 3.13 times

Retail – 2.9 times

Overall – 4.12 times

QIB – 0.00 times

NII – 1.81 times

Retail – 2.07 times

Overall – 1.45 times

QIB – 0.00 times

NII – 0.05 times

Retail – 0.16 times

Employee – 0.10 times

Overall – 0.04 times

QIB – 0.00 times

NII - 1.34 times

Retail – 1.24 times

Overall – 0.91 times

QIB – 0.00 times

NII - 0.01 times

Retail – 0.08 times

Employee - 0.06 times

Overall – 0.02 times

QIB – 0.00 times

NII - 0.00 times

Retail – 0.02 times

Overall – 0.01 times

QIB – 0.00 times

NII - 0.48 times

Retail – 0.29 times

Overall – 0.25 times

"Despite the volatility and the pull back towards close, the inside bar formation yesterday leaves us with hope that the ongoing upside trajectory may persist. Momentum continues to be absent, but the 25,200-460 objective looks possible nevertheless. The 24,825 region from where we had anticipated a swing higher yesterday, will continue to be a key support, but we prefer to push the downside marker to 24,940."

The Nifty recovered significantly after a gap-down opening amid weak geopolitical sentiment. A pullback in crude oil prices helped the Indian market pare some of its morning losses, although it still ended on a negative note.

For the day, the Nifty managed to close above the support level of 24,850, and Indian equities may continue to offer buying opportunities as long as the Nifty sustains above this level. On the higher side, if it moves above 25,000, it may head towards 25,350 in the short term.

Oil prices tumbled on Tuesday to their lowest level in more than a week as U.S. President Donald Trump said a ceasefire has been agreed between Iran and Israel, relieving worries of supply disruption in the area.

Brent crude futures fell $2.69 or 3.76% to $68.79 a barrel, after falling more than 4% earlier in the session and touching its lowest level since June 11.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slumped $2.7, or 3.94%, to $65.46 per barrel, having hit its weakest level since June 9 earlier in the session and falling around 6%.

The dollar fell on Tuesday while the Australian and New Zealand dollars rose after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, in news that sent investors cheering and sparked a risk rally across markets.

Trump said that a "complete and total" ceasefire between Israel and Iran will go into force with a view to ending the 12-day conflict between the two nations, moments after both sides threatened new attacks.

The dollar, which last week drew support from safe-haven demand, fell broadly in the wake of the news.

Against the yen, the greenback was down 0.21% at 145.79.

The euro rose 0.21% to $1.1602 and sterling advanced 0.18% to $1.3551.

Asian markets were trading higher on Tuesday after US President Donald Trump announced that Iran and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire.

Trends on GIFT Nifty indicate a positive start for the broader index in India, with a gain of 236.50 points or 0.94 percent. The Nifty futures were trading around 25,214.50 level.

#1 Asian markets rally after Trump says Israel, Iran agree to ceasefire

#2 Nikkei, Kospi rise anywhere between 1.5-2 percent

#3 GIFT Nifty signals near 300-point upmove

#4 Dow futures perk up after Trump announces tentative Iran-Israel ceasefire

#5 Wall Street rises nearly a percent

#6 US 10-year yield edges lower as crude cools

#7 Fed’s Bowman floats idea of July rate cut

#8 USD drops on dovish Fed comments

#9 Brent slides below USD 69 after tentative truce; gold eases

Benchmark indices erased early losses but still ended lower by over half a percent on June 23, as escalating geopolitical tensions in the middle-east weighed on equities and businesses dependent on crude oil after prices stayed above $78 per barrel over looming risk to the Strait of Hormuz, with Nifty 50 index ending below the 25,000 level.

After a gap down start, the markets had extended the fall in the initial hours but staged a sharp recovery in metal stocks, as well as small, and midcap indices. At close, the Sensex was down 511.38 points or 0.62 percent at 81,896.79, and the Nifty was down 140.50 points or 0.56 percent at 24,971.90. The broader indices outperformed the main indices with BSE midcap index rising 0.2 percent and smallcap index adding 0.6 percent.

Trent, Bharat Electronics, Hindalco Industries, Adani Enterprises, Bajaj Finance were among major gainers on the Nifty, while losers were Infosys, Larsen and Toubro, Hero MotoCorp, Mahindra and Mahindra, HCL Technologies.

On the sectoral front, IT, FMCG, Auto, Bank, telecom down 0.3-1.5 percent, while Consumer Durables, media, metal, capital goods up 0.3-4 percent.

Rule #1: Don’t lose money. Rule #2: Don’t forget Rule #1.