MC Exclusive: Samir Arora on betting on new-age tech and playing the GST cut

Samir Arora

Samir Arora, veteran investor and founder of Helios Capital, said survivorship, penetration and monetisation are the core drivers behind his high conviction on new-age companies such as Eternal, Paytm, Ather, and Ola. Helios’ mutual fund schemes have been steadily adding new-age companies to their portfolio. As of August, the funds increased stakes in One 97 Communication, Swiggy, Delhivery, Ola and Ather Energy. It also holds Eternal, a top bet for several quarters, apart from CarTrade and PB Fintech.

“Big picture logic is simple,” Arora said in an exclusive interview with Moneycontrol. “These companies are the survivors of a hard-fought battle that began when they were all unlisted. You started with perhaps 100 fintech companies and are left with seven, eight, or ten. In food delivery, the story is similar: 20 started, now there are two. The game is to bet with the winners.”

Arora emphasised that the growth driver is market penetration rather than the overall sector growth. “We’re not betting on whether the consumer sector grows at 8% or not. We’re betting that people choose quick commerce over traditional shops. Penetration is low and adoption is useful for customers — faster delivery without higher costs. And these companies are already making money: roughly 8–10 rupees per order, with 5 rupees from margin and 3–4 rupees from advertising revenue,” he explained.

For digital platforms like Paytm, the thesis is similar: consumers simply shift existing spending to the app without altering their overall consumption. In the case of Ather, the domestic team’s anchor investments helped drive a 70–75% increase in stock price. Ola, when Arora’s team invested, had a $2 billion market cap but had established production and 500 outlets, demonstrating tangible progress compared with the valuations of other unlisted startups.

Arora pointed out that valuations in the unlisted startup space remain high “just because they are unlisted,” he said, adding that survivors who are no longer bleeding daily are fair game for small investments, with the expectation that these businesses grow organically over time.

The underlying investment philosophy, Arora said, is that surviving startups have already internalised market lessons. “Most of these founders entered the market highly arrogant, thinking they had arrived after rapid early success. The market — and social media — teaches humility. It’s good to wait one to two years after listing unless there’s an exceptional story at the outset,” he noted.

When it comes to macro bets like the GST rate cut, Arora is cautiously optimistic but precise in execution. “If you look at what we bought for GST specifically, it’s only Hero Motor. The announcement on August 15 meant that vehicle purchases likely slowed from mid-August to end of month, with near-zero activity from September 1 to 21 as buyers waited for clarity. So assessing immediate stock benefit is tricky,” he said.

Arora stressed that the ultimate impact of the GST cut depends on consumer behaviour. “Big picture, money is in the system, which is positive for consumption. But will it flow to my stocks? That depends. Consumers may invest in SIPs, pay down unsecured loans, or buy products from unlisted or foreign companies — like air conditioning from Voltas, Bluestar, or other global players — rather than our listed companies.”