Sameet Chavan
The starting point of the week gone by was excellent as the pre-open suggested a bumper opening at records highs last Monday; courtesy gap up opening in two major index movers (RIL & HDFC Bank) after posting their quarterly numbers over the weekend.
But this bullishness at the opening was flatter to deceive. The market started coming off fiercely right from the word go, in fact, the selling aggravated as the day progressed to conclude with sharp cuts.
This negativity continued for the subsequent two sessions to slide towards the 12,100-mark.
However, bulls came for rescue and were successful in pulling the market higher to end the week well above 12,200.
Looking at the recent behaviour, it seems the market is giving full justice to the famous phrase ‘All is well that ends well’.
On the technical front, the market reversed precisely from a crucial juncture.
The support of 12,100 was placed at the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the recent up move from 11,929.60 to 12,389.05.
The most important observation was the convergence of the ‘upward sloping trendline’ drawn by joining recent swing lows with a low of 10,670.25.
Now, the forthcoming week would be crucial for our market as we are heading for one of the mega-events, the Union Budget on February 1.
So most probably, we are likely to see an action-packed week, especially for individual stocks.
As far as Nifty is concerned, we may see it going back to 12,300–12,390 ahead of the Budget and a positive outcome would enable it crossing this sturdy wall of 12,400 convincingly.
On the flipside, 12,200 followed by 12,150 would be seen as a sacrosanct support zone.
Last week, we had mentioned about mid-cap index entering an overbought zone and the possibility of some breather cannot be ruled out.
During the initial part of the last week, the index remained sideways and was clearly bucking the trend by not correcting as much as our benchmark did.
And once they settled, the mid-cap universe resumed its uptrend, which is likely to extend further.
Here are two buy calls for the next 3-4 weeks:
Puravankara | Buy | LTP: Rs 68.30 | Target price: Rs 73.50 | Stop loss: Rs 64.80 | Upside: 8%
The tide seems to have turned upwards for the entire real estate space as we saw stellar gravity-defying moves in larger names, such as DLF over the past three months.
Puravankara is yet to see a similar sort of traction. But now, the recent price action looks encouraging and on Friday, the stock prices finally managed to traverse its sturdy wall of 200-simple moving average on the daily chart.
The volume has risen substantially and therefore provides credence to the move.
Equitas Holdings | Buy | LTP: Rs 110.35 | Target price: Rs 126 | Stop loss: Rs 101.40 | Upside: 14%
For the last one month, the stock has been in a quiet phase with no major action seen. On the daily chart, prices have finally broken the consolidation range confirming an ‘inverse head & shoulder’ breakout.
The said breakout is supported by a bullish candlestick and increasing volume.
In addition, prices have closed above the higher range of Bollinger Band, suggesting a trending up move in the near-term after its recent consolidation phase.
(The author is Chief Analyst-technical & derivatives, Angel Broking)
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on moneycontrol.com are his own and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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