"We are bullish, but we don't expect a new all-time high within the quarter," Rohit Beri of ArthAlpha said in an interview to Moneycontrol. According to him, the volatility will remain elevated due to the global uncertainty on tariffs and the potential of the Indo-Pak war.
For markets to achieve a new all-time high in the short term, the triggers needed are the India-US FTA, significant earnings upgrades, and rate cuts, he said.
The CEO & CIO of ArthAlpha expects a strong pick-up in IPO activity in the latter half of the year. "The success of recent deals and over-subscription in quality names are reflecting renewed investor confidence—both in the institutional as well as retail segments," he said.
Do you expect the market to hit a new record high by the end of this quarter? If yes, what could be the key triggers?
The volatility will remain elevated due to the global uncertainty on tariffs and the potential of the Indo-Pak war. We are bullish, but we don't expect a new all-time high within the quarter.
For markets to achieve a new all-time high in the short term, the triggers needed are the India-US FTA, significant earnings upgrades, and rate cuts. Significant liquidity into Indian Equities, e.g. FII's pumping money back into India at a large scale, can achieve the same.
Good corporate earnings: Names such as Reliance Industries have reported good Q4 profit numbers, especially in their retail and digital businesses.
Policy stability: With elections poised to provide a stable result, investor confidence may be further supported by a stable policy environment.
FII inflows: Better macro numbers, political stability, and relative valuation comfort are making Indian equities more appealing to international investors.
Besides, GST collections, credit expansion, and PMI indicate a solid underlying economy. As global capital reassesses China exposure, consistent macro performance in India and momentum in structural reform provide an attractive growth alternative. If corporate profitability holds up and the monsoon outlook is favourable, the platform may well be in place for fresh market highs.
Do you see IPO activity picking up significantly as the year progresses, assuming the worst is behind us?
We do expect to see a strong pick-up in IPO activity in the latter half of the year. The success of recent deals and over-subscription in quality names are reflecting renewed investor confidence—both in the institutional as well as retail segments. Industries such as advanced manufacturing, logistics, fintech, and digital platforms are seeing strong pre-IPO interest.
Moreover, we’re witnessing a maturing of investor expectations. The focus is shifting from top-line growth alone to business fundamentals—scalability, governance, and profitability. This evolution makes the IPO landscape more discerning, but ultimately more resilient.
At ArthAlpha, our quantitative measures are showing the market is moving away from a preference for low volatility, and the momentum factor is picking up. However, value and quality as factors continue to be in vogue, and we expect that to continue, making an immediate flurry of IPOs unlikely.
Do you believe the gold-to-silver ratio suggests this is the right time to invest in silver?
The gold-to-silver ratio is still high—around 80:1—meaning that silver is still trading at a relative discount. Historically, these levels have tended to precede strong catch-up rallies in silver.
Yet, aside from valuation metrics, silver is structurally being re-rated on account of its increasing significance in green technology. From solar panels to electric vehicles, industrial demand for silver can only increase. Meanwhile, its traditional position as a hedge against money also positions it favourably in a scenario of persisting inflation and currency debasement threats. For long-term investors, increasing exposure to silver at a steady pace may prove a sound diversification move in the commodity basket.
Which sectors are expected to contribute the most to the projected double-digit earnings growth for FY26?
The FY26 earnings cycle is set to capture the combined effect of reform-driven momentum and capital investment. We anticipate leadership from the following sectors:
Capital Goods and Infrastructure: Driven by government expenditure, urbanization, and logistics connectivity.
Automobile and Ancillaries: Driven by domestic recovery, export resilience, and declining input costs.
Industrial Manufacturing and Railways: Riding the PLI schemes, Make-in-India initiatives, and enhanced freight efficiency.
Pharmaceuticals: Especially companies serving chronic care and those navigating regulatory challenges in developed markets.
Mid-sized IT Services: Disciplined companies with narrow digital capabilities and resilient order books.
This growth will more than likely be supported by enhanced operating leverage and a more resilient domestic demand environment.
What is your assessment of the March quarter earnings season so far?
The March 2025 earnings season has been in line with expectations, albeit with sector divergences. Energy, Industrials, Autos, cement, telecom, and capital goods have posted strong shows that have balanced out the lacklustre performance by IT services, Utilities and Real Estate.
A positive trend is the widespread strengthening of operating margins, underpinned by cost savings and top-line recovery. Also, initial indications of a rural turnaround indicate a more balanced growth trend in the future. What is noteworthy is the increasing quality of earnings—increasingly, companies are beating expectations not only on revenue, but on profitability and return measures. This indicates a move away from cost-driven survival to volume-driven growth.
Which sectors do you see as the next big drivers for the market, especially beyond the banking and financial space?
Though BFSI will remain the market performance anchor, the future leadership is expected to come from industries most closely related to national priorities and global megatrends:
Defence and Aerospace: Spurred by indigenous manufacturing initiatives and growing export opportunities.
Semiconductors and Electronics: At the crossroads of geopolitics and supply chain diversification.
Green Energy and Storage: Solar, EV ecosystems, battery technology, and green hydrogen.
Digital Infrastructure: Data centres, 5G deployment, and AI/automation-supporting platforms are on the verge of an inflection point.
Logistics and Supply Chain Modernisation: Backed by Gati Shakti and increasing domestic consumption.
At ArthAlpha, such transitions are being closely tracked through a multi-factor prism—balancing momentum, earnings reliability, and capital optimization. This same framework is the foundation for our just-launched MEQ (Machine Learning Equity Quant) strategy, which aims to isolate emerging leaders in new-age industries. It captures our conviction that market leadership in the future will be ever-more data-driven, fundamental-backed, and policy-driven.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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