MC EXCLUSIVE Europe travel takes a hit as Indian flyers rethink plans after Iran airspace closure, Air India crash

Furthermore given that majority of flights operated by Indian airlines between India and Europe are operated using Boeing wide-body aircraft including the Boeing 787 and Boeing 777 planes, the horrific crash of an Air India a London-bound Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner, carrying 242 people, is expected to make passengers nervous to travel on Indian airlines.

Crises have clouded Indian summer travel to Europe, leading to a noticeable drop in bookings. Geopolitical tensions, safety concerns following the Air India crash, and rising airfares are dampening Indian summer travel to Europe, forcing travellers to reroute journeys and reshape itineraries.

With safety concerns and logistical hurdles piling up, Europe may no longer be the top destination for Indian vacationers this season.

Currently, around 5-7 percent of bookings to Europe are being impacted due to the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, said Govind Gaur, CEO, WanderOn, noting that flight cancellations are prompting Indian travellers look for options.

"If their flights are getting cancelled then Indian travellers are looking for options. People are asking if they can book a different route if they can delay or advance their plans," he said.

Many Indians who preferred the US as a destination shifted their plans to Europe; however, those plans are now being affected due to flight cancellations and re-routing, Gaur added.

He estimates airfares to increase by 10-15 percent because travel time has increased which in turn increases the fuel cost. "Jordan and Israel are impacted. In the event of further escalations, the Saudi Arabian airlines will be impacted as they share borders. Due to all these aspects, Indians are showing concern and there are apprehensions."

Deepak Nangla, Managing Director, Premier by Brightsun, who also estimates a 10 percent increase in airfare on affected long-haul routes, particularly in premium cabins where inventory is limited, said that travellers are now booking more cautiously.

Due to the emerging situation in Iran, the subsequent closure of its airspace and in view of the safety of passengers, the following Air India flights have been either diverted or returned to their origin including AI130 – London Heathrow-Mumbai – Diverted to Vienna; AI102 – New York-Delhi – Diverted to Sharjah; AI116 – New York-Mumbai – Diverted to Jeddah; AI2018 – London Heathrow-Delhi – Diverted to Mumbai, among others, he said.

According to Nangla, North American routes may also be affected, with diversions via Sharjah, Jeddah, or Frankfurt. “Destinations likely to benefit include Southeast Asia – Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia as well as Central Asia and South Asia places like Maldives and Sri Lanka. These destinations offer shorter travel times, are more budget-friendly, and have easier visa processes.”

Longer flying routes for Indian and European carriers

Air India and IndiGo are among the airlines that are expected to opt for longer paths for their flights to Europe and surrounding parts of Asia, as was the case last year in October 2024 when tensions between Iran and Israel had forced airlines to take longer routes.

But in the current scenario with the Pakistani airspace also remaining closed, Indian carriers are expected to face even more uncertainties.

"Travel sentiment between India and Europe during the ongoing summer is facing multiple headwinds in the form of Iran-Israel and Pakistan airspace closures, and reluctance of Indian passengers to travel on Boeing wide-body planes following the June 12 crash. These are likely to significantly impact the operations of Indian carriers in the next few months, and international carriers will benefit from the same. But overall travel sentiment between India and Europe will likely be subdued," a senior executive from a European carrier operating flights to India told Moneycontrol.

The executive added that the wide-body capacity of West Asian carriers, along with higher bilateral seat entitlements between West Asian countries and India, and their unchanged fuel consumption and flight routes when operating between India and Europe are expected to draw more passengers to airlines like Emirates, Etihad Airways, and Qatar Airways.

"Indian carriers and European carriers due to the airspace closure of Iran, Israel, and Jordan are being forced to operate their flights after a stopover in the UAE (United Arab Emirates) or Qatar, which kills the competitive advantage of time, fuel efficiency and direct flight that Indian and European carriers offered customers," the executive said.

Similarly, another executive from a second European carrier told Moneycontrol that despite a 29 percent increase in Schengen visa applications from India for the summer season, a major incident like the Air India crash is expected to significantly impact air travel sentiment in the country where the calamity took place, he added that a falling rupee coupled with expected higher crude prices will also make it expensive for Indian to travel to Europe this summer which is expected to hit demand.

The Boeing impact

Furthermore, given that the majority of flights operated by Indian airlines between India and Europe are operated using Boeing wide-body aircraft including the Boeing 787 and Boeing 777 planes, the horrific crash of an Air India flight, a London-bound Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner, carrying 242 people, is making passengers nervous to travel on Indian airlines.

"Air India and IndiGo both use Boeing wide-body planes when flying to Europe, following the Air India crash, Indian passengers are expected to avoid flying on Boeing wide-body planes at least for the next few months," Lokesh Sharma, a senior aviation and defence analyst, told Moneycontrol.

On June 12, Air India Flight AI171, carrying 242 people, crashed into the BJ Medical College hostel complex in Ahmedabad shortly after take-off, claiming 241 lives on board the plane and 38 on the ground. Only one passenger, Vishwash Kumar Ramesh, miraculously survived and is recovering.

Overall international travel sentiment of Indians

Dr Vandana Singh, Chairperson Aviation Cargo, Federation of Aviation Industry in India (FAII) foresees a 10–12 percent decline in outbound group travel to Europe in the next 30–45 days, especially from tier-2 cities, where travellers are more price-sensitive.

"With airlines being forced to reroute around Iran, flight durations to Europe and the UK have already increased by 1.5 to 3 hours, leading to higher fuel burn and crew costs. Carriers such as Lufthansa, Emirates, and Air India have started recalculating route economics. We expect a 12–18 percent surge in fares on key corridors like Delhi–Frankfurt, Mumbai–London, and Bengaluru–Paris over the next 2–3 weeks. These hikes may be sharper for last-minute bookings and non-stop services," Singh said.

Indian travellers, particularly families and group tourists heading to Europe are now reassessing plans as the increase in travel time as much as 3 hours on westbound flights means longer layovers, higher ticket costs, and visa fatigue, she added. “Corporate travel will continue but leisure tourists are likely to defer or divert plans to Southeast Asia or the Middle East, where connectivity remains stable.”

Meanwhile, Vietnam, Thailand, Bali, and the UAE are aggressively marketing themselves with simplified visa processes, attractive packages, and quick turnaround flights, Singh said. “Indian travel operators are witnessing a 15 percent uptick in inquiries for Southeast Asian destinations as a direct outcome of the Europe travel disruptions.”

Gaur said that after the boycott of Turkey and Azerbaijan, Georgia has been picking up and this will continue with people shifting plans from Europe. “At this time people want to avoid summer destinations like Vietnam, Thailand, and Bali. Georgia is one destination that offers beautiful nightlife like Europe, and if someone has a Schengen or an active US visa then they can get a visa on arrival.”

"The longer Iran’s airspace remains restricted, the more lasting this shift in destination preference will be," Singh said.