Trump–Md bin Salman talks: Why Saudi normalisation with Israel depends on Palestine

Riyadh holds firm on Palestine

Saudi Arabia has signalled to the United States that any move towards normalising relations with Israel will occur strictly on its own terms, insisting that diplomatic recognition must be tied to tangible progress on Palestinian statehood. The stance underscores Riyadh’s determination to maintain leverage on the issue ahead of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MBS) much-anticipated visit to Washington later this month — his first since the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, which severely strained Saudi-US ties.

Diplomatic red lines remain firm

While US President Donald Trump has publicly championed the prospect of Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords, Riyadh has made clear that recognition of Israel is impossible without a credible roadmap towards Palestinian sovereignty. The kingdom wants this alignment settled before talks at the White House on 18 November to prevent diplomatic confusion.

Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy US national intelligence officer for West Asia and now with the Atlantic Council, said, “MBS is not likely to entertain any possible formalising of ties in the near future without at least a credible pathway to a Palestinian state.” He added that the Crown Prince would likely push Trump for “more explicit and vocal buy-in” for Palestinian statehood during the visit.

Domestic sentiment also shapes this approach. Arab public opinion remains sceptical of Israel, particularly after its military campaign against Hamas in Gaza last year. Saudi officials, including Manal Radwan from the Foreign Ministry, have reiterated key conditions: an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, deployment of an international protection force, and the return of Palestinian Authority control to the territory before normalisation can be considered.

Defence and investment take centre stage

Given the slow pace of progress on the Palestinian issue, Riyadh is expected to focus its Washington talks on defence cooperation and investment. A new defence pact is anticipated, defining US military support and strengthening America’s strategic presence in the Gulf. The agreement, narrower than the full congressional treaty once sought by Riyadh, is reportedly modelled on the executive-order deal signed with Qatar earlier this year.

The pact will expand cooperation in defence and technology, with mechanisms enabling future administrations to upgrade it into a full treaty. Analysts describe it as a “stepping stone” that could grow more comprehensive if normalisation with Israel moves forward.

Shifting regional calculus

The urgency for a NATO-style treaty has waned as Iran’s regional threat recedes, following Israeli strikes on Iranian sites and setbacks for Tehran-backed groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. The proposed agreement is also expected to include safeguards limiting Saudi defence and technology ties with China, while expediting advanced US weapons sales long stalled by bureaucratic hurdles.

Strategic balance

Saudi Arabia’s strategy highlights a deliberate balancing act — safeguarding its national security, strengthening US ties, and preserving influence over the Palestinian question. Trump’s optimism about swift normalisation contrasts sharply with Riyadh’s cautious conditions, underscoring the intricate diplomacy now shaping the region’s future political and security order.