Trump effect? Computer, electronics production jumps to 33-month high in March

It's not chips down yet for India when it comes to mobile exports

US President Donald Trump, who completes 100 days in office on April 29, is having a telling effect on the Indian economy with his on-again and off-again tariffs. And, it is showing, especially in the computers and electronics segment.

India’s production of computers and electronics reached a 33-month high of 21.5 percent in March, up from 11.2 percent in the previous month, government data released on April 28 shows.

Producers rushing goods to American shores to beat Trump’s tariffs may be one of the reasons for this spike, economists said.

“In trying to safeguard themselves from the imminent tariff hikes by the US, there was an extraordinary rush for orders in electronics, auto parts, and electricals. For example, Apple airlifted five flights of iPhones in March 2025,” said Paras Jasrai, associate director, India Ratings and Research.

Trump on April 2 announced a 36 percent duty on Indian goods, as part of his widespread "reciprocal tariffs" on US’ trading partners in his pursuit of "fare trade". A week later, he put all reciprocal tariffs, barring on Chinese goods, on hold for 90 days. A baseline tariff of 10 percent is still in place.

China and the US have both levied duties upwards of 100 percent since the escalation of the trade conflict.

Moneycontrol reported earlier this month that there may be more gains for India, as Apple and Samsung look to move production to India to cater to the American market.

In 2024, the US accounted for 35 percent of India’s smartphone exports, up 33 percent a year ago and 14 percent in 2022.

It is not just computers and electronics where India seems to be doing well. Production of electrical equipment was up 15.7 percent in March from 9.5 percent in the previous month, the data shows.

Machinery and equipment production rose to a three-month high of 8 percent and than of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers rose to an 11-month high of 10.3 percent in March on the back of strong demand as well.

Basic metal production has also done well since Trump took office on January 20. It grew 6.9 percent in March from 5.2 percent in February.

India’s industrial growth rose to 3 percent in March from with 2.7 percent in the previous month.

“Manufacturing may have benefited from inventory accumulation by companies ahead of the anticipated announcement of reciprocal tariffs,” said Rajani Sinha, chief economist, CareEdge.

The effect of Trump’s tariffs may also reflect in April.

“Looking ahead, while there is some evidence as well as commentary around frontloading in exports to the US, we need to see whether this is driven by redirection away from other geographies or a bump up in output in the ongoing month,” said Aditi Nayar, chief economist, Icra.

Economists note that tariffs could also have a downside risk, as it could hurt exports.

"Industrial growth in FY26 will be driven by both recovery in private investment as well push to consumption. These will be the positive factors. On the other side, the new tariff environment in the USA would have a bearing on how exports of manufactured goods fare," said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist, Bank of Baroda.