MC EXCLUSIVE Revision of GDP, IIP estimates 'not weakness but strength' of the system, says Statistics Secretary Saurabh Garg

The recent union budgets and initiatives by the central ministries and departments have been reform-focused: Statistics Secretary Saurabh Garg

The revisions to economic data points such as GDP and the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) are standard practice globally, reflecting the National Statistical Office's (NSO) commitment to accuracy, Statistics Secretary Saurabh Garg told Moneycontrol, adding that significant steps are being to reduce their magnitude and frequency.

“Revision of the estimates of GDP, IIP etc through press release is not weakness but strength of the statistical system," Garg said in the interview.

The Statistics Secretary added that the ministry is taking several steps to enhance the GDP estimation process, including improving the data captured from informal economy through greater frequency and sample size of national sample surveys on unincorporated enterprises and employment, and by integrating more administrative data - GST, UPI transaction, and Vahan - with the GDP.

Garg said GDP relies ‘heavily’ on the MCA-21 data on the corporate performance. “Timely filings of complete data on profit and loss accounts and balance sheet etc by the companies to Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) will help in reducing the magnitude of the revision in GDP by NSO.”

On the dissolution of the Pronab Sen-led Standing Committee on statistics in 2024, Garg said the ministry has a robust mechanism in place for guidance and advice on all surveys undertaken.

Garg added that the Steering Committee of the National Statistical Commission (NSC) - with mandate for finalization and approval of survey results and reports - comprises of 17 members, of which 13 are outside MoSPI. “This ensures a forum catering to external views of distinguished experts on the methodology and quality of surveys.”

Edited Excerpts:  

Q. Do you feel there is a need to increase the frequency of consumer expenditure survey, that typically happens once in five years? 

Previously, Household Consumer Expenditure survey or HCES used to be conducted once in every five years. As a new methodology was adopted in the HCES 2022-23, in order to assess the robustness and consistency of the methodology and to check the data quality, the working group on HCES had recommended conduct of two back to back surveys. Accordingly, two back to back HCES were conducted in 2022-23 and 2023-24. It has now been decided that the HCES will be conducted once in every 3 years. Accordingly, the next HCES survey will be taken up during 2027-28.

Q. We often see large quantum of revisions in the GDP and IIP data. What can be done to reduce the magnitude of revisions? 

Considering the continuous efforts being put by the NSO to use more representative and complete data as and when they are available, for improving the quality of the estimates of GDP, IIP etc, the periodic revision in the estimates is inevitable. Revision of the estimates of GDP, IIP etc through press release is not a weakness but strength of the statistical system, and this practice is not unusual globally.

However, the ministry has taken steps to reduce the frequency of revision of GDP to the extent possible. In February 2024, the dissemination of the third Revised Estimates of GDP has been discontinued after consultation with data supplier agencies and major stakeholders.

To improve data availability in time for GDP estimation, several steps are being taken. To capture the contribution of the informal economy in a better way in GDP, the frequency and sample size of the national sample surveys on unincorporated enterprises and employment are being increased significantly. As you know, the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE) is now conducted every year instead of the earlier practice of conducting it once in five years or so. Similarly, the results of Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) are being released every month for all India now, instead of earlier practice of releasing the urban result quarterly and rural results annually.

In GDP estimation, NSO is increasing use of administrative data that has become available now as part of digital India initiatives like, GST data, UPI transaction data, e-Vahan registration data, etc are planned to be used in the next series of GDP estimates. These are likely to capture the more accurate picture at the time of quarterly estimates.

GDP relies heavily on the MCA-21 data on the corporate performance. Timely filings of complete data on profit and loss accounts and balance sheet etc. by the companies to Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) will help in reducing the magnitude of the revision in GDP by NSO.

In case of IIP, the NSO regularly sensitizes source agencies to engage with production units regarding timely submission of data. If the initial response rate by the production units is good, the magnitude of subsequent revisions reduces significantly. As most of the source agencies are shifting towards online data-collection platforms for factory units, it is expected that the extent and magnitude of revisions in IIP estimates would reduce in near future.

Also Read: Goodbye pen and paper, NSO embraces digital surveys for faster results

Q. Which are the new surveys that are going to be published by MoSPI going forward? Could you please name a few? 

The ministry has already published advance release calendar (ARC) for the year 2025-26 on the website. Following the ARC, the reports of different surveys are being released. The ministry has already prepared survey calendar up to the year 2027 and different new surveys are proposed to undertaken apart from the regular/ annual surveys of NSS.

In 2025, different household surveys such as PLFS, Household Social Consumption - Health, CMS Telecom, CMS - Education, Domestic Tourism Expenditure Survey, National Household Travel Survey are being taken up.

Also, now on for PLFS, monthly bulletin too will be published. The first such monthly bulletin for April 2025 has been published on May 15, 2025. Apart from this, the quarterly bulletin will now provide estimates of labour force indicators both for rural and urban areas.

Q. Do you feel a need to have a committee such as the Standing Committee on Statistics (which was dissolved recently) which can give an external view on the methodology and quality of surveys? 

There is a robust mechanism in place for guidance and advice on all surveys undertaken by the ministry. National Statistical Commission (NSC) has constituted a Steering Committee for NSS with mandate for finalization and approval of survey results/ reports for release, examine issues on methodology of surveys or other issues and also to form Technical Advisory Group with domain experts to advise on survey methodology. The members of the steering committee and Technical Advisory Groups are stakeholders from diverse fields.

The steering committee for NSS is chaired by the Chairperson of the National Statistical Commission, an eminent statistician. The Steering Committee comprises of representatives of MoSPI, Department of Economic Affairs, Reserve Bank of India, NITI Aayog and state governments as well as the subject-matter experts from various prestigious institutions in the country such as Indian Statistical Institute (ISI) Kolkata, IGIDR Mumbai etc. 13 out of the 17 members of the committee are from outside MoSPI. This ensures a forum catering to external views of distinguished experts on the methodology and quality of surveys. The recommendations of steering committee and reports of TAGs are placed before the NSC for deliberations and finalization.

Q. In your view, how is India's economy performing? Has our potential growth fallen from 7%?  

If you see the recent NAS 2025 published by the NSO, MoSPI, the past three years’ average of real GDP growth rate was 8.8% with FY 2023-24 observing a real GDP growth rate of 9.2%. If we consider the last 10 years from 2014-2015 to 2024-2025 (excluding the Covid year 2020-21 and recovery year 2021-22), India’s real GDP growth averaged 7.1%. The fact that this has been achieved despite far-reaching global economic disruptions indicates the strength of India’s growth potential. GDP growth moderated in 2024-25, partially due to normalization of trends, and largely due to global uncertainties impacting manufacturing. Still, India’s growth has been the highest among the major economies of the world.

Growth potential of a country is determined by a complex interaction between the growth of factors production, productive efficiency of product and factor markets, and, the external trading and financial environment. On the policy front, with a view to strengthen the productivity of factors of production and to improve product market deficiencies, the Government has been undertaking multifaceted reforms, centered around the agenda of ‘Viksit Bharat’. The recent union budgets and initiatives by the central ministries and departments have been reform-focused. This has helped India recover from the pandemic-related dislocations swiftly and achieve an average growth above 8.2% during the last four years.