Relief for India’s banana, solar cell, and meat exports as Middle East balances a fragile ceasefire

A fragile ceasefire would bring relief for India's exporters

A fragile peace in the Middle East has brought not only relief to Indian markets and fuel consumers but also cheer to exporters of solar cells, meat, bananas, and cardamom.

Of the $434 billion worth of goods India exported globally in 2024, Middle Eastern nations accounted for $15 billion of India’s goods exports in 2024, or about 3 percent of the total, according to a Moneycontrol analysis.

Among the biggest beneficiaries of the truce are exporters of sheep and bovine meat, with the entire $176 million worth of Indian exports in this category headed to the region in 2024.

Middle Eastern nations were the largest buyers of Indian writing ink, accounting for 99 percent of total exports in the category. The region along with North Africa also absorbed 91 percent of India’s $530.5 million in copper wire exports.

Photovoltaic (solar) cells were another major export item, with over 80 percent of exports going to the Middle East. Dairy products and iron and steel, with trade worth $676 million in trade, also had a major dependence on the Middle Eastern region.

India’s top fruit export, bananas—which surpassed grapes as the most exported fruit in FY25—was also largely destined for the Middle East. Countries in the region made up eight of the top 10 destinations, accounting for 83 percent of exports, with Iraq alone absorbing 60 percent.

In other categories such as cardamom, 70 percent of India’s exports were directed to the MENA region, while the figure was slightly lower at 65 percent for silk.

Cosmetics also saw heavy reliance on the region, with 58.5 percent of exports going there in 2024.
Of the $74 billion worth of goods India exported to the region, nearly 20 percent involved categories where over half of the total exports were dependent on Middle Eastern buyers.

If the conflict flares up

However, the industries are not out of the woods yet. Despite US President Donald Trump announcing a ceasefire on June 24, Iran fired missiles into Israel, prompting threats of retaliation.

“In light of the severe violation of the ceasefire carried out by the Iranian regime, we will respond with force,” said Eyal Zamir, Chief of General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces.

Any escalation could impact nearly 20 percent of India’s total trade, as noted in an earlier Moneycontrol analysis. India's transportation, fuel, and minerals sectors are especially vulnerable, with the region accounting for 48 percent of fuel imports and a quarter of mineral imports in 2024.

If the Red Sea trade route is affected—especially after Yemen’s announcement of entering the conflict—it could jeopardise nearly 40 percent of India’s overall trade.