Coronavirus pandemic | These five states are leading India's economic recovery

Five states - Kerala, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Haryana and Karnataka - are ahead of the pack in terms of a return to normalcy in economic activity, according to a report by Elara Capital.

The report uses proxy indicators such as power consumption, traffic movement, mandi (wholesale market) arrivals and Google mobility data, to track the progress with respect to revival in economic activity across India, Garima Kapoor, economist at Elara Capital, said in the report. She added that the best stimulus the Indian economy can have is a resumption of normal economic activity.

Overall electricity consumption data highlights a decline in the contraction in electricity consumption, from 28 percent during March-end to 8.5 percent as on May 27.

"Uptick in electricity demand has been led by Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Himachal Pradesh, primarily reflecting demand from agriculture operations," the report noted.

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"Other states that recorded meaningful recovery in electricity consumption are Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Uttarakhand and
Tamil Nadu. These also are states that have shown good progress
in mobility trends," it added.

Meanwhile, key metros like Delhi and Bengaluru are witnessing marked improvement in vehicular movement, which signals an improvement in mobility. Delhi, despite having a very high COVID-19 case burden, has shown good improvement in mobility trends as restrictions have been eased across the national capital. However, Mumbai continues to lag in this respect. The improvement is calculated based on mobility in states since April 1.

Again, the report uses an analysis of Google search trends to see any shift in consumer behaviour in the pre and post-lockdown scenario. What was seen is that searches associated with panic amid the announcement of the lockdown--pharmacy and grocery stores, liquid soaps, eLearning, online doctor consulting, school books-- have gone down. On the other hand, search trends for items such as earphones, hair trimmers, hair oil, laptops, dishwasher, mobiles, jewellery, mops, toys, and microwaves, have remained consistent throughout the lockdown.

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