Samvat 2082: What brokerages expect and how they see the year ahead

Since last Diwali, the Sensex has risen 3.3 percent and the Nifty 3.9 percent — marking their slowest annual advance in three years

Despite heavy foreign selling, lofty valuations, muted corporate earnings, and persistent global trade frictions, Indian equities showcased remarkable resilience through Samvat 2081. Robust domestic inflows of Rs 5.8 lakh crore cushioned the impact of substantial foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows, helping the markets hold firm.

Since last Diwali, the Sensex has risen 3.3 percent and the Nifty 3.9 percent — marking their slowest annual advance in three years. The broader market lagged, with the BSE MidCap slipping 0.1 percent, its first decline in three years, while the BSE SmallCap fell 4.3 percent, the first drop in six years.

Globally, equities outperformed on optimism surrounding artificial intelligence, easing trade tensions, and expectations of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 climbed 14 percent, the Dow Jones gained 7 percent, and the Nasdaq jumped 23 percent. European indices followed suit, with the FTSE 100 up 16 percent, the CAC 40 higher by 11 percent, and the DAX soaring 33 percent. Across Asia, the Shanghai Composite advanced 22 percent, Hang Seng surged 32 percent, Nikkei rose 14 percent, Kospi gained 27 percent, and Taiwan added 17 percent.

As Samvat 2082 begins, global and domestic brokerages share a cautiously optimistic outlook for Indian markets.

Kotak Securities expects earnings stability after prolonged downgrades, projecting an 18 percent earnings growth for the Nifty 50 in FY27. It estimates earnings per share to rise to Rs 1,297 in FY27 and Rs 1,487 in FY28. Kotak believes a steady macro backdrop provides a strong base for markets, though high valuations and global headwinds could limit upside potential. Overall, the brokerage anticipates modest returns over the next 12–15 months as earnings growth may be tempered by valuation compression.

Nuvama Research sees the global rate-cut cycle accelerating, with the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank expected to ease policy through FY26. The RBI is also likely to follow with calibrated rate cuts as inflation stays within its 2–6 percent comfort band. Nuvama expects strong earnings visibility supported by healthy credit growth, rising manufacturing momentum, and infrastructure investments. With valuations at 19–20 times forward Nifty earnings, the brokerage finds the market fairly priced, though it expects mid- and small-cap stocks to consolidate after sharp rallies. Despite short-term volatility, India’s policy stability, sound banking system, and robust domestic demand support a constructive medium-term outlook.

HDFC Securities warns that escalating US-China tensions could disrupt global supply chains. Washington’s proposed 100 percent tariffs on Chinese goods from November 2025 and Beijing’s likely retaliation could extend uncertainty well into 2026. HDFC expects selective, stock-specific gains amid stretched valuations, with a preference for domestic consumption, financials, power, and engineering sectors. The firm’s curated portfolio of ten stocks — spanning large caps and emerging names — aims to deliver superior long-term performance.

SBI Securities forecasts Indian equities shedding their underperformer tag, buoyed by double-digit earnings growth, benign crude prices, potential progress on the US-India trade front, and higher fund inflows into emerging markets. The brokerage identifies opportunities across auto, cement, NBFCs focused on MSME and housing finance, capital market intermediaries, select banks, electronics manufacturing services, recycling, pharma (including CDMO and ancillaries), structural steel, office leasing, hotels, hospitals, and defence-linked manufacturing. It also expects robust festive-season consumption in Q3 FY26, aided by GST cuts and improving macro fundamentals.

Mirae Asset Sharekhan remains constructive on India’s long-term growth trajectory, underscoring its steady march toward becoming the world’s third-largest economy. However, after two years of outperformance in small- and mid-cap segments, the brokerage expects leadership to shift toward large caps in Samvat 2082, citing better valuations and improved risk-reward dynamics.