India's market capitalisation fell in September quarter, lagging peers on Trump tariffs and FII outflows

markets

India ranked the weakest performer among the world’s top 10 equity markets during the September quarter, with its total market capitalisation sliding 5.6 percent to $5.08 trillion from $5.38 trillion a quarter ago.

In stark contrast, China led global gains with a 20 percent surge in market cap to $12.96 trillion during the quarter, followed by Taiwan and Hong Kong with rises of nearly 12 percent each.

The United States' market capitalisation rose 8.4 percent, while Canada and Japan gained 8 percent and 6.2 percent, respectively. The United Kingdom and France saw marginal growth of 3.3 percent and 2.4 percent, while Germany declined 2.33 percent.

M-cap chart

Domestic equities mirrored the drop in market capitalisation, as the Sensex and Nifty shed about 4 percent each during the quarterm with broader BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices down over 4.5 percent.

Investor sentiment took a knock recently after the US hiked H-1B visa fees to Rs 1 lakh from Rs 1,000 and revoked sanction waivers on Iran’s Chabahar Port effective September 29. Fresh pressure came on September 26, when President Donald Trump announced a 100 percent tariff on branded and patented pharmaceutical imports from October 1, unless companies set up manufacturing bases in the US.

Throughout 2025, Indian equities have battled persistent volatility, led by sustained foreign institutional investor selling, stretched valuations and weak earnings delivery.

Yet, recently, brokerages have turned optimistic, with Motilal Oswal Securities, Emkay Research, Prabhudas Lilladher, HSBC, Kotak Institutional Equities and Jefferies see earnings momentum revive, aided by the recent GST reform and expectations of policy easing by the Reserve Bank of India.

“Looking ahead, structural positives offer a silver lining,” said Sachin Jasuja, Founding Partner and Head of Equities at Centricity.

“GST relief and improved liquidity should revive consumption and growth. Sectors such as consumer discretionary, new-age technology, defence, renewables, Battery Energy Storage Systems, and domestic manufacturing are well-placed for expansion. Public sector banks and select NBFCs stand to benefit as well. If reforms sustain and global risks ease, Indian markets could scale fresh highs in the next 8–12 months.”

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