Oil prices set to rise after US strike on Iran raises fears of Gulf energy retaliation

The strikes, which mark the first time the US has bombed Iranian territory directly, are being viewed by analysts as a watershed moment

Oil markets are expected to open sharply higher on Sunday night after US President Donald Trump ordered direct airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities—an escalation that has raised the risk of retaliation against vital energy infrastructure across the Gulf, the Financial Times reported.

With crude markets closed for the weekend, traders are preparing for a volatile start when they reopen, amid fears that Iran could target oilfields, export terminals or tankers in the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for global energy flows.

A new red line in energy geopolitics

The strikes, which mark the first time the US has bombed Iranian territory directly, are being viewed by analysts as a watershed moment. “A clear red line has been crossed,” said Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy. “Even in the absence of immediate retaliation, an oil price jump is expected due to the elevated geopolitical risk premium.”

While Brent crude closed at $77 a barrel on Friday, analysts expect the benchmark to climb above $80 when trading resumes. Markets are already up nearly 10% since Israel first launched attacks on Iran 10 days ago, but the addition of US military involvement has introduced an entirely new level of uncertainty.

All eyes on Iran’s next move

Iran has promised to retaliate if the US enters the conflict, and hardline voices within Tehran were already calling on Sunday for attacks on US Navy vessels in the Gulf and blockades in the Strait of Hormuz.

Roughly one-third of the world’s seaborne oil trade flows through the strait daily. “Any threat to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz would immediately cause prices to soar,” León said.

Though Iran has previously warned it could shut the waterway, many experts believe a complete blockade would be difficult to execute. A more plausible scenario involves targeted attacks on oil infrastructure in regional US allies such as Saudi Arabia or Qatar—countries that have so far urged restraint and dialogue.

Markets tense but supplied—for now

Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights said prices will likely spike at the open but may stabilize by Monday if Iran refrains from immediate retaliation. “The key question is what comes next,” wrote James Bambino and Richard Joswick. “Will Iran attack US interests directly or through allied militias? Will Iranian crude exports be suspended?”

Iran currently exports around 2 million barrels per day. About 21 million barrels per day pass through the Strait of Hormuz from countries including Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE.

Even if Iranian oil exports are disrupted, analysts say existing global inventories and potential increased output from the Opec+ group could keep supply relatively stable—provided the Strait of Hormuz remains passable.

Regional allies urge calm amid rising tension

The strikes have rattled America’s Gulf allies, with Qatar’s foreign ministry warning that the region is facing “catastrophic repercussions.” Saudi Arabia said it was watching the situation in Iran with “great concern.”

For now, oil traders are on edge, awaiting signals from Tehran that will determine whether this weekend marks a temporary price shock—or the start of a sustained energy crisis.