Buy Oil India; target of Rs 580: Emkay Global Financial

Emkay Global Financial is bullish on Oil India has recommended buy rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 580 in its research report dated February 08, 2025.

Broker Research

February 12, 2025 / 21:47 IST

BUY

26 Aug, 2025 12:21

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Emkay Global Financial's research report on Oil India

Oil India clocked Q3FY25 SA EBITDA of Rs21.3bn – a 5% miss, mainly on the 3% revenue miss due to lower realizations, crude sales. SA PAT of Rs12.2bn missed our estimates by 19% on lower Other Income. Crude/gas output rose 1% YoY each to 0.87mmt/0.83bcm (in-line). NRL’s EBITDA recovered by 65% QoQ to Rs6.6bn, led by 18% QoQ uptick in throughput amid a weak basic GRM of USD2.1/bbl (hit by inventory loss). The management guided to oil/gas output of ~3.5mmt/3.3bcm for FY25 with 4mmt/5cm Mission 4+ targets by FY27/28. DNPL expansion would be fully complete by Mar-26 and support gas output growth as expanded NRL capacity would also be commissioned by then. New well gas quantity approval from the MOPNG is expected soon.

Outlook

We cut FY25E/26E/27E consol EPS by 12%/10%/5%, building in lower production, higher opex, and lower Other Income, besides the slight cut in NRL earnings. We cut Dec-25E TP by ~13% to Rs580 (10x target P/E vs 11x earlier). BUY.

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