Telangana Elections 2023: Most exit polls suggest upset victory for Cong. But what if the majority isn’t right?

Will Revanth Reddy be CM if Congress wins?

As the curtains fall on the polling spectacle in Telangana, a wave of optimism has swept through the Congress camp, fuelled by exit poll predictions that forecast the Grand Old Party's triumphant return to power in the youngest state of India.

With the rank and file finding a spring in their step, the party chief Revanth Reddy predicted a high of 80 seats after the polling ended at 5 pm. However, the accuracy of exit polls should be always taken with a pinch of salt and a hung assembly is not ruled if both BRS and Congress fall short of the halfway mark of 60.

The post-poll analysis conducted by numerous agencies indicates a noteworthy lead for the Indian National Congress over the incumbent Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), albeit with varying margins. Approximately 12 surveys suggest that Congress is poised to secure a substantial lead, paving the way for the formation of the government. However, there are others like Rajneethi and CNN's exit polls predicting a hung assembly.

Divergence in predictions is also evident as Third Vision and Political Graph foresee a commanding 68 seats for BRS, overshadowing the 34 to 40 seats projected for Congress. In contrast, the exit polls of CNN, Rajneethi and News 18 place Congress at 56 seats, with BRS trailing at 45 to 48. They also gave 10 for BJP and CNN predicted five for AIMIM.

The initial advantage enjoyed by BRS, driven by the charismatic leadership of KCR, witnessed a transformation as the campaign unfolded. Growing anti-incumbency sentiments gradually tilted the balance in favour of Congress, culminating in a fiercely contested electoral finale, with the Grand Old Party enjoying a discernible advantage. The silent revival of Congress started a year ago with many districts in Telangana witnessing Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra and the Congress victory in neighbouring Karnataka further improved the morale of the cadre.

The fading Telangana statehood sentiment coupled with huge sections of disgruntled farmers and jobless youth pushed the BRS party to the back foot while Congress managed to put at rest the internal squabbles under Revanth Reddy, who has emerged as a credible challenger to KCR.

Various agencies who conducted the exit polls, including CPAC, AARAA, Chanakya, CMAC, PTS Group, ABP- C-Voter and Jan Ki Baat, projected Congress to secure a comfortable 64 seats or more. On the other hand, Smart Poll, Polstart, India TV-CNX, and People's Pulse are even more optimistic, forecasting 70 seats or beyond for the Grand Old Party.

BRS sought a historic third term in the state that was formed in 2014 but notably, no state in southern India has ever clinched a third consecutive term. CPAC envisions a landscape where BRS secures 41 seats, while Congress takes the lead with a formidable 65 seats, accompanied by BJP and MIM capturing 4 and 7 seats respectively. AARAA, on the other hand, foresees a range of 41 to 49 seats for the incumbent BRS, contrasting with a more promising outlook for Congress at 58 to 67 seats. BJP is projected to secure 5 to 7 seats, leaving approximately 7 to 9 seats for other parties. If these hold right, the state assembly can expect a strong opposition.

But the Today’s Chanakya predictions paint a challenging scenario for BRS, allocating a modest 22 to 31 seats, while forecasting an impressive 67 to 78 seats for Congress. BJP is estimated to secure 6 to 9 seats, and AIMIM is expected to claim an additional 6 to 7 seats.

CMAC's projections allocate 40 to 45 seats for BRS, with Congress leading in 62 to 67 seats. BJP is anticipated to secure 3 to 5 seats, while AIMIM is expected to claim 5 to 6 seats. ABP- CVoter predicts 49 to 65 for Congress and 38 to 54 for BRS with BJP getting in the range of 5 to 13.

With all the varying predictions, one common thread points out that Congress is poised to return to power. However, note that these agencies are also suggesting a wide range in their projections and it is best to wait till December 3 when the results are declared to see which party crosses the 60-mark in the 119-seat assembly.