Rajasthan Elections 2023: Can Gehlot’s aggressive avatar that laid Congress high command low, win him voters?

Rajasthan Elections 2023: Much of Ashok Gehlot's third term as Rajasthan Chief Minister was spent battling opponents within and outside the Congress.

After five years of easily his most tumultuous term, Ashok Gehlot comes across as a combative, aggressive politician – a stark departure from the modest, humble persona that defined his career over the past 45 years. Much of his third term as Rajasthan Chief Minister was spent battling opponents within and outside the Congress. As he seeks a fourth term as CM, Gehlot has donned a fiery avatar, determined to protect his political legacy and hold onto power, regardless of the feathers he may ruffle, even within the Congress high command.

For decades, Gehlot was known as a mild-mannered politician who took pride in being a Gandhi loyalist and being always aligned with the Congress’ first family. In the past five years, however, a new Gehlot has emerged – aggressive, unafraid to use biting language, and eager to safeguard his political space and leadership at all costs.

Aceing Welfare Delivery, Foiling The Pilot-BJP Coup

With elections around the corner, Gehlot has set a ‘Mission-156’ for himself – aiming to reach the highest number of seats the Congress has ever won in Rajasthan. His confidence rests on well-crafted social welfarism which he calls the “Rajasthan Model of Good Governance”. From the Chiranjeevi health insurance scheme to giving free smartphones to women and from reviving the Old Pension Scheme to Minimum Guaranteed Income for the entire adult population, Gehlot schemes encompass a range of initiatives that cover all segments of society.

While Gehlot and the Congress regard these welfare schemes as their winning card, the CM and his loyalists never tire of underlining how he outwitted the “Chanakya of Indian politics” during the Sachin Pilot-led revolt in 2020. Gehlot was always a few steps ahead of Union home minister Amit Shah in what he claims was a bid to topple his government.

How he protected his MLAs from poaching, initiated FIRs against BJP leaders and the Congress rebels, and exposed alleged connections between the Pilot-led rebels and Union Minister Gajendra Shekhawat are too well-known to need much repetition.

Gehlot even made his MLAs use Gandhigiri tactics to keep the state Governor in check. Through well-timed strategies, Gehlot saved his government in an era when the BJP was toppling Congress governments in states like Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka.

When Gehlot’s Stock In Congress Rose

This successful defence elevated Gehlot's standing in the Congress. He cemented his position further by actively organising protests and personally being in the forefront when the Enforcement Directorate questioned Rahul and Sonia Gandhi in the National Herald money laundering case in the summer of 2022.

Suddenly, from just a long-standing loyalist who had served Indira, Rajiv and Sonia Gandhi, Gehlot became an indispensable asset for the Gandhis. And this at a time when other seniors like Ghulam Nabi Azad and Kapil Sibal, along with their G-23 group, and former Punjab CM Amarinder Singh, were embarrassing the Congress High Command led by the Gandhis.

Inevitably, in the Pilot-Gehlot rivalry, Sachin was outfoxed by the seasoned CM, despite the former’s close links with Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi. Through overt/covert attacks, Gehlot depicts Pilot as a power-hungry politician solely interested in the CM post.

Observing Prime Minister Modi's functioning style, Gehlot too has been on a massive publicity overdrive. He ran his government as a one-man show, borrowing a page from Modi's playbook, who has harnessed self-promotion and a determination to win every battle as his path to power and stature. In recent years, Gehlot has also cultivated an image of a “Mazboot, Dabangg Neta”, a strong fearless leader, much on the lines of PM Modi.

From Loyalist No.1 To Rebel No.1 

As Gehlot's influence continued to rise, the Gandhis asked him to be Congress President and move to Delhi with the aim of installing Sachin Pilot as CM. Gehlot's suggestion that he could hold both posts was firmly opposed by Rahul Gandhi. Soon, over 80  Congress MLAs did not attend an official legislature party meeting convened to pass a resolution authorising the then Congress chief Sonia Gandhi to appoint a successor to Gehlot on September 25 last year. Instead, they joined a parallel meeting at Gehlot loyalist Shanti Dhariwal's home in Jaipur.

Gehlot transitioned from being Loyalist No. 1 to Rebel No. 1 to thwart Pilot's elevation as CM – though he claims he had no role in this revolt. While stalling Pilot, Gehlot had indirectly resisted the party's top leadership and exposed the high command's powerlessness. In a sense, Gehlot had renegotiated the equation between a regional satrap and the Congress top brass just when the Gandhis were weak. Though he publicly apologised to Sonia Gandhi, Congress insiders say there’s now a distinct chill from the Gandhis towards Gehlot.

Given this context, Gehlot’s flippant remarks about the “CM post not leaving him” at the AICC headquarters recently, assume special significance. The high command has not anointed him CM face but Gehlot was virtually signalling that he is firmly in the race if Congress wins the upcoming elections. Many see it as a ploy to pre-empt any high command plan to replace him.

Gehlot’s MLAs A Liability On Poll-Eve?

The seemingly innocuous comments came while a huge debate was raging over party tickets. The first few lists bear a strong Gehlot stamp with most of his loyal MLAs getting tickets. All eyes are focussed on whether Gehlot will get his way or the high command will reject his demand for ministers Shanti Dhariwal and Mahesh Joshi who allegedly orchestrated the September 25 revolt last year.

Despite all the tickets he swings for his supporters, if Dhariwal and Joshi are dropped, it will be a blow for Gehlot's prestige.

Ultimately, the Congress needs to decide whether pleasing Gehlot by repeating most MLAs is essential or should winning elections and retaining power take precedence. Historical trends suggest that repeating familiar faces in Rajasthan elections is hardly a winning strategy. From the 10th to the 15th Vidhan Sabha, barely 35 percent of sitting MLAs were re-elected and just 29 percent of sitting MLAs won in the last elections.

Given Rajasthan's history of anti-incumbency and Gehlot's own record of leading the Congress to historic lows after his first two terms, the crucial question is whether Gehlot's welfare policies and combative persona can ensure a Congress comeback. The jury is still out on this but while Gehlot may have outsmarted his rivals and recalibrated his equation with the Congress high command, winning over voters is a different challenge altogether.

Rajan Mahan is a senior journalist who headed NDTV and Star News in Rajasthan. He was also a Professor of Journalism at the University of Rajasthan in Jaipur. Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.