A brewing PM-CM showdown promises an electoral thriller in Rajasthan

Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot,

It's being billed as the “Big Fight” of the upcoming winter. With a belligerent BJP firing on all cylinders to regain power and a combative Congress equally resolute to retain power, the Rajasthan election promises to be a titanic clash.

Besides the showdown between the two major parties, several intriguing factors are all set to ensure high political drama in the high-stakes poll battle in India’s largest state.

BJP’s Hindutva Pitch, Factionalism Woes

Rajasthan has consistently voted out incumbents over the past three decades and the BJP is trying to capitalise on this sentiment. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the face of BJP’s state campaign, the saffron brigade is employing polarisation as its key plank to rally support. Using various incidents of communal tensions in the past five years and citing cases like the Kanhaiyalal beheading in Udaipur last year and acquittals of the accused in Jaipur blasts of 2008, the BJP is accusing Gehlot government of “appeasement politics”.

In keeping with the script, even BJP biggies from PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah to party president JP Nadda are crafting a high-pitched discourse to polarise the electorate. It was virtually the defining theme of the “Parivartan Yatras” the party recently held throughout the state. No wonder, BJP has even appointed South Delhi MP Ramesh Bidhuri as its in-charge for Tonk district, just days after he hurled communal slurs and abuse at fellow MP, Danish Ali of the BSP, during the special session of the Parliament.

Despite its aggressive campaign, BJP is facing a leadership crisis in the state. Infighting has left the party without a clear face, hindering its ability to connect with voters. Ignoring her popularity, two-time CM Vasundhara Raje has been sidelined. Instead, the party has several other CM aspirants like Union Ministers Gajendra Shekhawat and Arjun Meghwal, Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla, and state stalwarts like Leader of Opposition Rajendra Rathore and former state BJP chief Satish Poonia. This internal discord had made it tough for BJP to mount strong public agitations or win most bypolls in the past five years.

Congress’s Gehlot Show, Pilot Fear

In contrast, the Congress in Rajasthan is a one-man show led by Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot. Given complete freedom to steer the ship, the party is relying on his brand of welfarism and schemes. Despite the state’s revolving door tradition, Gehlot’s effective handling of the Covid-19 pandemic is also being seen as a key to victory.

Over the past five years, however, tensions between CM Gehlot and former deputy CM Sachin Pilot have been a recurring theme. The Pilot revolt in 2020 nearly brought down the Congress government. How the Sachin Pilot factor will play itself out in the electoral arena, especially in East Rajasthan where Gujjar votes are crucial, is a key aspect to watch in this election.

Though Rahul Gandhi and Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge have made the warring duo smoke a peace pipe in recent months, public perception of a Gehlot-Pilot rift persists which could spoil the optics despite a decent governance record. In addition, paper leaks in numerous recruitment exams for government jobs and no spectacular achievements on the employment front may affect youth voters.

With both BJP and Congress riven with infighting and intrigue, ticket distribution will be an acid test and whichever party handles internal squabbles and sabotage more effectively, may well gain an upper hand in the poll arena.

Beyond BJP-Congress rivalry, other facets make this election fascinating. Hanuman Beniwal and his Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) are a crucial factor in the Jat belt. Given his affinity with Jat youth, Beniwal is looking to expand his footprint through the Jat vote which decisively impacts around 40 of the state’s total 200 seats.

Similarly, the Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) will be a vital factor for the tribal vote that’s critical in south Rajasthan. Also, Asaduddin Owaisi's entry adds a fresh layer of intrigue – how much he dents Congress’ minority votes is a key imponderable.

The PM-CM Face-Off

What makes it a more heady electoral encounter is the impending PM-CM clash. With BJP not fielding any CM face and relying on Modi magic for votes, the direct showdown has led to trading of barbs through the year between PM Modi and CM Gehlot. When the PM raised the “Red Diary” issue that allegedly contains corrupt deals of Gehlot’s tenure, the CM asked Modi to focus on “Red Tomatoes” to corner him over rising prices. Their overt/covert attacks and captivating dialogues are bound to make this poll drama a spicy saga.

With a CM striving to convince voters on his governance track record and a PM keen to overcome electoral setbacks in Himachal and Karnataka, Rajasthan will see an electoral clash like no other. The development vs polarisation debate is likely to dominate this intriguing contest.

As most surveys suggest a really tight fight, even Rahul Gandhi recently stated that “we are winning in MP-Chhattisgarh, but the contest in Rajasthan is very close.” With both parties sparing no effort and a direct PM-CM faceoff amid a high octane campaign, the Rajasthan battle is likely to be an electoral thriller where no political pundit would risk predicting the winner.

Rajan Mahan is a senior journalist who headed NDTV and Star News in Rajasthan. He was also a Professor of Journalism at the University of Rajasthan in Jaipur. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.