Yatra Fever: BJP’s bet on a post-Raje future, Gehlot’s on East Rajasthan water woes

The political yatras have set the stage for Rajasthan elections. (Source: AP/ File/ Representational image)

Yatra politics is peaking in election-bound Rajasthan and September 25 is set to be a historic day. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi will preside over a gala conclusion to the four “Parivartan Sankalp Yatras” designed to regain power for the BJP, the Congress will launch its “Jan Ashirwad Yatra” on the same day in east Rajasthan as Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot strives to retain power in the desert state.

The PM Modi rally in Jaipur is crucial for the BJP to forge a winning strategy. Despite covering all 200 constituencies of the state, the four “Faceless Yatras” mostly garnered attention for wrong reasons. After a high-profile launch, it’s the absence of former CM Vasundhara Raje that’s dominated headlines, sparking a big buzz that she’s angry with party bosses. Her loyalists have persistently demanded that Raje be the CM face. But she wasn’t made even the face of the yatra campaign and her role remains undefined two months before the polls.

There’s no official word about why Raje absented from the Yatra trail. For a fortnight she stayed in Delhi but despite returning to Jaipur a few days ago, she’s not attended any Yatra events. Instead, on Saturday, she held her own women’s meet in Jaipur where Raje asserted she “will not leave Rajasthan”. Interestingly, she also remarked, “Lord Krishna blessed Draupadi, telling her that she would get His help when she needed it the most. When the Kauravas insulted Draupadi, she sought Krishna's help. People mocked her, thinking the Lord wouldn't, but He did come to her aid.” While many see the women’s rally as a show of strength, an air of uncertainty hangs over Raje’s future.

Adding fuel to fire, one of Raje's key loyalists and former Speaker of the Rajasthan Assembly, Kailash Meghwal, was suspended during the yatras for his corruption charges against Union Minister Arjun Meghwal. As the party took action, Kailash Meghwal turned more aggressive. Claiming rampant factionalism in the state BJP, he asserted that many leaders are trying to decimate Raje loyalists. This exposed the rift in the state BJP, with most linking Meghwal's suspension to his allegiance to Raje.

In Raje's absence, other leaders have sought to seize the limelight, including Leader of Opposition Rajendra Rathore and the current and former state presidents, CP Joshi and Satish Poonia. But Union Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, whose chief ministerial ambitions are soaring amid Raje's sidelining, attracted maximum attention. He shocked many by threatening to “pull the tongue and gouge the eyes” of anyone attacking Sanatan Dharma (in the context of Tamil Nadu minister Udhayanidhi Stalin’s comments). Later, a police FIR was registered against him in Sirohi district where a local resident alleged that Shekhawat was inciting Hindus by falsely claiming that the Ram Navami Yatra in their district saw large-scale violence.

Shekhawat's spat with veteran BJP MLA Suryakanta Vyas, a known Raje loyalist, provided further evidence of intra-party discord. As Shekhawat and Vyas traded barbs over old age and political seniority, their exchanges exposed the deep divisions within the BJP. With BJP leaders pulling in different directions, response to the Yatras was lukewarm. As party workers were  confused and masses hardly enthused, empty chairs often greeted BJP leaders at Yatra rallies.

With Raje marginalised and PM Modi taking the reins of the campaign, a “PM vs CM” showdown now seems imminent in Rajasthan. To counter the PM’s influence, the Congress is starting its own Yatra on the emotive issue of water scarcity in East Rajasthan. CM Gehlot's ‘Jan Ashirwad Yatra’ will cover the 13 districts earmarked for the Eastern Rajasthan Canal Project (ERCP) which has been delayed by Centre and state government disputes.

Through this Yatra, Gehlot and the Congress aim to turn ERCP into a core election issue and slam the Modi government's handling of the Rs 40,000 crore water project. The Congress is demanding national status for ERCP that’s pending with the Centre since 2018. The failure to grant the project a national status, initially conceived by then-CM Vasundhara Raje in 2017, is believed to have contributed to the BJP's defeat in the 2018 polls. Now, Gehlot is keen to build a narrative against the Modi government in the 80-plus assembly seats affected by the ERCP.

The Congress hopes this Yatra will help maintain their electoral edge in the 83 assembly seats in the ERCP districts, of which they won 48 in the 2018 elections. In contrast, the BJP performed poorly and got no seats in four east Rajasthan districts. By emphasising the ERCP issue, the Congress aims to mobilise the public and demonstrate how BJP's delay in granting national status to the project has negatively impacted their lives.

The BJP has struggled to counter the allegations about the canal dispute. While the Congress claims PM Modi promised national status for the ERCP in 2018, the BJP argues that the project proposal does not meet the criteria for national status.

Gehlot is leveraging this issue to hold PM Modi accountable for broken promises and portray him as unreliable. Also, bitterness between Gehlot and Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, the Union Jal Shakti Minister, further complicates matters, with Gehlot using the ERCP issue to tarnish Shekhawat's image. Recently, Gehlot attacked Shekhawat as a ‘good for nothing’ minister for failing to resolve the ERCP issue despite being from Rajasthan.

Clearly, the political yatras have set the stage for Rajasthan elections. Will Congress be able to break the revolving door tradition of the state or BJP romp back to power is the big question. While the verdict will come in December, the Yatras in September are giving a rousing start to an epic poll clash. With a powerful PM on one side and a wily CM on the other, this is a battle of wits and nerves that's off to a captivating start.