Karnataka Elections: Five reasons behind BJP's failure to retain power

The BJP has paid the price for 'various failures'. The voters have delivered a decisive mandate for the party.

The Congress returned to power on its own strength in Karnataka on May 13, with wins or leads in 137 out of 224 seats, after a 10-year gap.

The voters have delivered a decisive mandate for the party. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has paid the price for “various failures”. The Janata Dal (Secular), the regional party, has again proved that it is not a force to reckon with across the state.

Karnataka was the only southern state that was held by the BJP. The state kept up its convention of not re-electing a party.

Reason 1: Congress’s Pan-Karnataka presence

There could be many reasons to win or lose an election. But certain factors become obvious. For example, in the case of the ruling BJP, it is still a party that needs to grow across the state. The Congress, on the other hand, is deeply rooted in every district.

A swing of 2-5 percentage points is sufficient for the Congress to score over the BJP. Unlike the BJP, the Congress state leaders took the responsibility of leading the party to polls.

Reason 2: The DKS-Siddaramaiah Combo

DK Shivakumar, the Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee chief, and Siddaramaiah, former chief minister, positioned the party well before the people. There was no let-up in their efforts to project the ruling BJP as the most corrupt. Efforts started with the PayCM campaign months ago. The Congress didn't just rely on its planning but also roped in political agencies to step up its campaign.

The Congress, unlike the BJP, banked heavily on its senior Karnataka leadership. That has also helped the party smile today. The Congress’s vote share has crossed 40 percent, which is a record in recent years. Interestingly, the traditional Vokkaliga belt, comprising mainly Mandya and Hassan, also stood by the Congress. After decades, the Congress has also enjoyed quite a bit of support of Lingayats in the state.

Read more on our Karnataka Election Results coverage here

Muslims seemed to have no dilemma while voting. They set aside the JD(S) and stood by the Congress. In addition, the Bommai government’s internal reservations for the Dalits also did not work for the BJP.

Reason 3: Women Vote

The Congress knew well that its Anna Bhagya scheme had appealed to the people between 2013 and 2018. It not only latched on to this idea but also expanded it by coming out with six guarantee schemes, the first being the Gruha Lakshmi scheme, under which every woman head of household in Karnataka would get Rs 2,000 a month.

It has also offered to give 200 units of free power to all houses under the Gruha Jyoti scheme. While the families below poverty line (BPL) are now struggling to get even 4 kg of rice, free of cost under the Public Distribution Scheme (PDS), the Congress has promised to give 10 kg of free rice per head. All these assurances definitely looked attractive to voters, especially for women who are struggling to run families, with LPG prices going up.

Reason 4: BJP’s Failed Generational Transition

The Congress’s task to win back the state became easier when the BJP’s Lingayat strongman, BS Yediyurappa, announced that he was off electoral politics. The central leaders of the BJP as well as Sangh leaders wanted to reclaim the party from a couple of senior leaders, including Yediyurappa. The party wanted to position itself as a party for all communities. But it has failed in its mission.

The BJP has never come to power in Karnataka on its own strength. Its best performance so far has been in 2008, when it won 110 seats. In 2018, it secured 104 seats. Both times, it inflated its strength through inducing defections from other parties.

Reason 5: Weakened Local Leadership

The corruption charges against the Basavaraj Bommai government had dented the image of the BJP. BJP state leaders, including ministers, could hardly tom-tom their achievements or explain to the people how the people of Karnataka have been benefiting from the Narendra Modi-led government at the Centre. The charisma of BJP stalwarts Narendra Modi, Amit Shah or JP Nadda has not worked in Karnataka. The Bajrangbali campaign also failed to attract voters to the BJP. Many BJP ministers were packed off by voters this time.

While the Congress had distributed tickets to 150-odd candidates well before the filing of nominations, the BJP left the entire responsibility of finalising candidates to its central election committee. Probably, the committee failed to understand the dynamics of each constituency and thus experimented by not fielding at least 50-odd sitting MLAs.

The Congress fought the elections with local leaders on local issues, while the BJP relied too much on its central leaders who promoted the work done at the national level.