Karnataka: Congress performance gives party cadre reasons to cheer in three upcoming direct fights with BJP

Karnataka Elections 2023

The Congress, on May 13 afternoon, was on course to win the legislative assembly election in Karnataka, defeating the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The results are significant for the Congress because it will only be the second state – after Himachal Pradesh in December – which it won on its own majority in the last four years since the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led BJP came back to power at the Centre in 2019.

Later this year, three electorally significant states – BJP-ruled Madhya Pradesh and Congress-ruled Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan – will go to polls. Congress leaders and political experts feel that Saturday’s result could boost the morale of party workers and leaders in the three states. That set of winter elections will come close on the heels of the Lok Sabha elections early next year.

On May 13, in Karnataka, Siddaramaiah, the Congress’s main face of the campaign and former chief minister, told reporters that the party was confident of winning more than 120 seats and it will get a majority. The state has 224 assembly seats.

Siddaramaiah, who was on course to comfortably win his Varuna seat, is likely to take over as the next chief minister.

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Ahead of the final results, a visibly emotional DK Shivakumar, president of the Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee, told reporters on May 13 afternoon: “I credit my party workers and leaders for this win. People have shown their faith in us and this was a collective leadership…working together has led to this success. There is only one support and that is for the Congress.”

How will it be a morale-booster for Cong?

The Congress is now looking to build upon its performance in Karnataka, which alone accounts for 28 Lok Sabha seats. The party is currently in power on its own in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Himachal Pradesh. It is part of the ruling alliance in Bihar, Jharkhand and Tamil Nadu. Party leaders say that Saturday’s result will ‘motivate’ workers and supporters to continue to put their faith in the Congress.

“This will have a huge impact nationally. A win in Karnataka shows that public sentiment is in our favour. The result will motivate not just party workers in the three upcoming state elections but also the voters in general to support us,” PL Punia, senior party leader and former Rajya Sabha member, told Moneycontrol.

“Like Karnataka, the Congress has a strong standing in all the three states which go to polls this year. I would say similar conditions exist. We are confident that voters will continue to support us,” he added.

In 2018, the Congress had lost Karnataka. Six months later, it had won all the three states – Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. In Madhya Pradesh, however, its government lost the majority in March 2020 and it paved the way for the BJP to wrest power. The three states are politically significant as they all see a direct contest between national rivals BJP and the Congress.

Political experts say while Karnataka’s result will not have any direct impact on elections in the three north Indian states, it could help boost the morale of both workers and leaders of the Congress.

“The last few years have not been electorally good for the Congress. Karnataka’s win will be the second successive one for the Congress party after Himachal Pradesh last year. It will boost the morale of party leaders and workers,” Sanjay Kumar, professor at the New Delhi-based Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), told Moneycontrol.

Read more on our Karnataka Election Results coverage here

“It sets the stage for upcoming elections in a way the workers will be enthusiastic. But we should not equate this result with elections due later this year. Those states are, by and large, in the Hindi heartland and the Congress in Karnataka is not the same as it is in other states. In Karnataka, it has always had a very strong presence,” he added.

The three state elections are often seen as a “semi-final” for the Lok Sabha elections, which will take place just a few months later. The states are electorally crucial because they account for 65 of the total 543 Lok Sabha seats. However, despite a good performance of the Congress in the three state elections in 2018, it did not translate well for it in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Out of the 65 seats, BJP won 61, leaving very little for the Congress.

All eyes will now be on the campaign that the Congress party runs in these three states. In both Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka, the Congress defeated the BJP-led governments. The contest can be more challenging when it defends its incumbent governments in two out of three states –Ashok Gehlot-led Rajasthan and Bhupesh Baghel-led Chhattisgarh.