LS polls: Nearly half of BSP's candidates in 1st list for UP are Muslims, a likely blow for SP-Congress alliance

Unlike the 2019 elections, when it was in alliance with the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), the party is contesting the elections alone this time.

The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has named 25 candidates in its two lists for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh on Sunday.

In its first list, the Mayawati-led party has fielded Muslim candidates in seven of the 16 seats, potentially creating a problem for the SP-Congress alliance, both of which are a part of the INDIA bloc and are hopeful of consolidating votes of the community against the BJP.

Unlike the 2019 elections, when BSP was in alliance with the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), the party is contesting the elections alone this time.

Will Mayawati's Muslim push potentially dent SP-Congress?

BSP’s emphasis on Muslim candidates in seats with considerable Muslim presence is likely to dent the core Muslim votes of Congress and the Samajwadi Party. One of the main reasons for the SP to forge an alliance with the Congress was to consolidate the Muslim votes in their favour. Analysts believe that if a Muslim candidate from BSP is able to take away a fraction of community vote, it will dent the chances of INDIA bloc candidates in western Uttar Pradesh as it happened on several seats in 2022.

The party has fielded candidates from the minority community in Saharanpur, Moradabad, Rampur, Sambhal, Amroha, Aonla, and Pilibhit as these seats are seen to have a significant Dalit as well as Muslim population. The Congress and SP too have fielded Muslim candidates in these seats.

Looking at BSP's first & second list

The BSP has nominated Mazid Ali from Saharanpur, Shreepal Singh from Kairana, Dara Singh Prajapati from Muzaffarnagar, Vijendra Singh from Bijnor, Surendra Pal Singh from Nagina, Mohammad Irfan Saifi from Moradabad, Zeeshan Khan from Rampur, Shaukat Ali from Sambhal, Mujahid Hussain from Amroha, Devratt Tyagi from Meerut, Praveen Bansal from Baghpat, Rajendra Singh Solanki from Gautam Buddha Nagar, Girish Chandra Jatav from Bulandshahr, Abid Ali from Aonla, Aneesh Ahmed Khan alia Phool Babu from Pilibhit, and Dodram Verma from Shahjahanpur.

The second list of the party featured nine candidates. BSP has fielded Hembabu Dhangar from Hathras, Kamal Kant Upmanyu from Mathura, Pooja Amrohi from Agra, and Ram Niwas Sharma from Fatehpur Sikri. Satendra Jain Sauli has been fielded from Firozabad, Sarika Singh Baghel from Etawah, Kuldeep Badauria from Kanpur, Rajesh Kumar Dwivedi from Akbarpur and Surendra Chandra Gautam from Jalaun.

Revisiting BSP's past performance

BSP's electoral performance has been on the decline since 2007, when it had formed a government in UP on its own winning 206 of the 403 assembly seats and securing 30.43 per cent votes.

In the 2012 assembly poll in UP, the BSP secured 25.19 per cent votes and its tally of seats came down to 80. BSP's vote share declined further to 22.23 per cent and its seats came down to 19 in the 2017 assembly poll. In the assembly poll held in 2022, BSP fared dismally and could win only one seat and and its vote share stood at a meagre 12.9 per cent.

7-phased polling in Uttar Pradesh

Uttar Pradesh, which sends 80 members to the Lower House of Parliament, will see voting in all the phases of the general elections: April 19, April 26, May 7, May 13, May 20, May 25 and June 1. Counting of votes will be held on June 4. In 2019, the BJP and its ally Apna Dal (Sonelal) won 64 seats -- 62 and two respectively. The SP-BSP alliance managed 15 seats and the Congress one.