One Nation, One Election: Why Assembly terms may shorten in UP, Bengal, Punjab, Gujarat and other states

Analysts assert that the frequency of elections significantly influences the priorities of governments and political parties.

The high-level panel on 'One Nation, One Election' (ONOE) conducted a study of election processes in six countries, including South Africa, Sweden, and Belgium, before proposing simultaneous polls for both the Lok Sabha and state assemblies in India. Additionally, concurrent elections are conducted in countries such as Germany, Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Belgium.

Panel's Survey: Majority of Parties Support Simultaneous Elections

The panel reached out to 62 parties, receiving responses from 47 of them. Among the respondents, 32 expressed support for holding elections simultaneously, while 15 were against the idea. The Congress, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) have all opposed the proposal for simultaneous elections, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the National People's Party have expressed support for it.

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Concurrent Polls: Promoting Stability and Economic Development

There are several reasons supporting the principle of holding simultaneous elections. Within the competitive landscape of electoral democracy, the persistent cycle of elections can disrupt substantive policy discourse, as electoral dynamics often shape the stances of political entities at both state and national levels. The synchronisation of elections would afford governing and opposition parties alike the opportunity to focus on governance and policy formulation until the subsequent general elections, mitigating uncertainty and nurturing economic development.

The expert panel emphasised that technical analysis reveals favourable outcomes in economic growth, inflation, investment, and public expenditure following periods of synchronised elections. Although the direct financial costs of staggered election cycles may not be substantial, it is the resultant policy ambiguity that undermines effective governance.

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Potential Simultaneous Polls in 2029: Constitutional Amendments Await

If the Centre opts to implement simultaneous elections for the Lok Sabha and state assemblies in 2029, the process would kick off immediately after the conclusion of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. It is probable that many state assemblies might be dissolved in 2029, preceding the completion of their five-year terms, to facilitate the synchronisation of elections. Such a move would require amending constitutional provisions pertaining to the duration of the Lok Sabha and state assemblies during the tenure of the subsequent Lok Sabha.
Although the high-level committee has deferred the determination of readiness for simultaneous polls to the Centre, it has outlined a suggested roadmap. This one-time transition would become inevitable should the Centre endorse the recommendations of the panel chaired by former President Ram Nath Kovind.

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10 States Facing Imminent 2028 Elections

Last year, approximately 10 states witnessed the formation of new governments, which will once again go to polls in 2028. Consequently, the new governments formed in these states will remain in power for nearly a year or less. If the Centre decides to implement the ONOE policy, states such as Himachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Tripura, Karnataka, Telangana, Mizoram, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan would go to polls in less than a year's time.

Major States Foresee Short-Lived Governments

More significantly, major states such as Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, and Punjab, despite potentially offering decisive mandates to a single party, are poised to see governments with tenures lasting two years or less. This scenario arises due to their scheduled state elections in 2027. Likewise, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, and Kerala are expected to see governments lasting for only three years, even if a party secures a majority in the upcoming Assembly polls, as these states are slated to go to polls in 2026.

Proposed Amendments Target Synchronised Elections

With the aim of harmonising concurrent elections with constitutional principles, the committee has introduced proposed amendments focussing on Article 83, which deals with the Lok Sabha's duration, and Article 172, addressing the term length of state assemblies. These amendments are slated for implementation through Presidential notification.

Potential Impact on State Governments' Terms

However, the effectiveness of this notification relies on obtaining parliamentary endorsement and failure to secure approval would render the proposed amendments invalid. On the other hand, if the amendments receive parliamentary approval, it would pave the way for the implementation of simultaneous polls, thereby requiring the truncation of many state governments' terms during the transitional phase.

Panel Proposes Flexible Approach to Simultaneous Polls

Charting a course for the implementation of simultaneous elections, the committee has entrusted the decision-making authority to the government concerning readiness for this substantial undertaking. As per the report, the Union government would determine when the requisite arrangements are in place for conducting simultaneous elections.

Balancing Short-Term Gains Against Long-Term Economic Stability

Experts argue that the frequency of elections has a substantial impact on the priorities of governments and political parties. The constant pressure to win upcoming elections frequently shifts focus towards short-term political objectives, sidelining sound long-term economic planning. As a result, critical reforms are often postponed as governments prioritise electoral success, ultimately leading to a direct cost borne by the electorate in need.