Lok Sabha Elections 2024: From Ram Mandir to citizenship charter, 5 themes to rule the campaign trail

As the Lok Sabha 2024 polls commence with high-decibel campaigns, a clash of promises and assurances from various political parties looms large.

With the announcement of the poll schedule by the Election Commission of India, the country has shifted into election mode. The poll panel set a seven-phase schedule for the Lok Sabha elections spanning from April 19 to June 1, with vote counting scheduled for June 4. The duration of the poll process in India has indeed seen an increase over the years. In 2004, the Lok Sabha election was held over a span of 21 days, which extended to 28 days in 2009, 37 days in 2014, and 36 days in 2019. The upcoming elections will now be held over a period of 46 days.

Political analysts argue that the prolonged duration of the electoral process in India reflects the complex nature and vast scale of conducting elections in the world's largest democracy. This extended timeline allows authorities to carefully manage resources, refine logistical arrangements, and enhance security protocols, ensuring the smooth conduct of polls across diverse geographical regions and a large electorate.

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Moreover, the extended electoral period provides political parties with ample time to engage with voters, conduct effective campaigns, and address various region-specific and community-centric concerns. It promotes increased voter participation and engagement in the democratic process, thereby strengthening democratic principles and reinforcing the electoral framework.

The electoral process in India is a vibrant spectacle where political parties employ a wide range of strategies to connect with voters. From massive rallies and roadshows to social media campaigns and door-to-door canvassing, each party crafts its own narrative to appeal to different segments of the electorate.

The election period is marked by a flurry of activity, with candidates and leaders engaging in passionate debates, speeches, and discussions on pressing issues facing the nation. As the campaign progresses, the political landscape evolves, and voters gain a clearer understanding of the choices before them. At last, it is the collective voice of the electorate that determines the outcome of the elections, shaping the future direction of the country.

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As the Lok Sabha polls kick off with high-decibel campaigns, a clash of promises and assurances from various political parties looms large. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has launched "Modi Ki Guarantee" as the focal point of his campaign, stressing on the development of youth, empowerment of women, and the welfare of farmers and marginalised communities. In contrast, the Congress party is banking on its 'Nyay' guarantees, with the aim of delivering justice to various segments of society.

Moneycontrol has identified five key themes that are expected to shape the 2024 Lok Sabha election campaigns in the days ahead:

Ram Temple

The BJP is poised to claim credit for the construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya, while simultaneously criticising the Congress for rejecting the invitation to the inauguration ceremony. To counter this, the Congress may seek to deflect criticism by highlighting historical context, such as the opening of the lock at the makeshift Ram Lalla shrine during Rajiv Gandhi's tenure as prime minister.

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The saffron party is expected to capitalise on the Hindutva ideology to solidify support from the majority community. In response, the Congress may adopt a strategy of "soft Hindutva," akin to its approach in recent assembly elections.

Analysts say the political narrative surrounding the construction of the Ram temple had lost its momentum until PM Modi brought it back into limelight with a grand ceremony in January. This strategic move has recharged the BJP cadres, which is further reinforced by other issues, including the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), the resumption of puja within the Gyanvapi mosque, the abrogation of Jammu and Kashmir's special status. The BJP's intensive outreach to the Hindu community aims to overshadow the opposition INDIA bloc's emphasis on caste-based politics.

These themes underscore the continuation of identity-based politics and ideological polarisation, with both major parties strategically appealing to religious sentiments and historical narratives to garner electoral support.

CAA

The implementation of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) by the Union government just ahead of the Lok Sabha elections is expected to significantly shape the electoral discourse in West Bengal, which ranks third in terms of the number of members it sends to the Lok Sabha, following Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra. Both the opposition BJP and the ruling TMC stand to gain politically from the issue as they aim to sway voters in their favour.

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The Bengal BJP regards the CAA as a crucial issue in the upcoming polls, particularly in constituencies dominated by the Matua community, envisioning favourable outcomes for the party. In contrast, TMC leaders acknowledge the CAA's potential to influence the electoral narrative but aim to use it to underscore their opposition to what they perceive as the BJP's "anti-Bengali" sentiments.

Political analysts suggest that the impact of the CAA could be substantial, particularly in 12-15 constituencies across North and South Bengal, where both Matua and minority populations are influential. They expect that the CAA could trigger consolidation and counter-consolidation of voters.

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There has been a demand for the National Register of Citizens (NRC) to address concerns about infiltrators from Bangladesh, given Bengal's lengthy border with the neighboring country. The implementation of the CAA was a significant campaign issue for the BJP during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, contributing to the party's surge from two to 18 seats in the state.

'Modi Ki Guarantee' vs Congress' Nyay Guarantees

PM Modi has unveiled "Modi Ki Guarantee" as the cornerstone of his campaign, aiming for an ambitious target of securing 370 seats for the BJP independently. As mentioned on the PM's website, "Modi Ki Guarantee" pledges to prioritise the development of youth, empowerment of women, welfare of farmers, and addressing the longstanding needs of marginalised and vulnerable sections of society.

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In a contrasting move, the Congress party has regained momentum, particularly evident in the state elections of Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, and Telangana, by presenting guarantees to the electorate that have resonated positively. As the upcoming Lok Sabha polls approach, the party has revealed its five 'Nyay' guarantees, aimed at ensuring justice for youth, farmers, women, labourers, and advocating for inclusive justice for all.

Inflation and Unemployment

PM Modi has demonstrated a proactive approach towards curbing sticky inflation compared to many of his predecessors. He maintained retail fuel prices at a freeze for several months and recently reduced them. Additionally, he has repeatedly decreased LPG prices and imposed bans on food exports when necessary. Notably, he distributed free food grains to nearly 80 crore Indians, despite facing criticism from economists. Although some level of food inflation persists amid intensified campaigning, it is unlikely to emerge as a major national issue for the opposition unless unforeseen shocks occur.

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In contrast, the Congress party is expected to direct its focus on the issue of unemployment, aiming to target the ruling BJP. During Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra in Madhya Pradesh, he underscored India's unemployment crisis, comparing it unfavorably to Pakistan's situation. Arguably, the most powerful economic weapon for INDIA bloc lies in addressing the jobs crisis. Even government data suggests that a significant portion of "employed" Indians are either self-employed or involved in unpaid household work.

Additionally, the Congress is poised to raise concerns about inflation, particularly concerning the rising prices of essential commodities such as milk and cooking gas.

BJP's Political Evolution: A Fresh Approach to Alliances

In the realm of political alliances, PM Modi seems to have imbibed valuable lessons from past missteps. Reflecting on former PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee's decision to reject the DMK and Ram Vilas Paswan in 2004, which proved costly, the PM has adopted a distinct approach in 2024.

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Despite being the frontrunner and encountering significant challenges among the partners of the INDIA alliance, PM Modi has actively pursued reconciliation with estranged National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners such as Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu. He has also skillfully managed the fallout with the Shiv Sena to forge alliances with one faction.

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Furthermore, he has extended olive branches to former adversaries like the JD(S), engaging in ongoing discussions with the BJD. Nevertheless, despite the pressing need for a unified coalition, the INDIA alliance appears fractured, despite efforts at seat-sharing in critical states such as Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Bihar and and Maharashtra.