J&K polls: Why South Kashmir holds key to PDP’s electoral fortunes

PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti and her daughter.

The polling to the 90-member Jammu and Kashmir assembly began earlier today. In many ways than one, the elections are historic with the electorate and the regional parties repeatedly expressing their desire to partake in the democratic exercise as the region was devoid of any meaningful electoral engagement for the last ten years.

In the first phase, the region is witnessing a contest in 24 assembly seats spanning across the regions of Chenab valley and the Maraz. The Chenab valley comprises three districts - Doda, Kishtwar, and Ramban - which collectively hold eight assembly seats. The Maraz region comprises Anantnag, Pulwama, Kulgam, and Shopian districts. Out of the 24 assembly seats, 16 are in South Kashmir with the remaining 8 falling in the Jammu region.

PDP’s battle for survival?

After its impressive show in 2014 assembly polls, Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP is fighting a battle for its survival in its erstwhile bastion of south Kashmir. In the first assembly elections in the region in a decade, the party faces an existential battle in a four-cornered contest involving its traditional rivals NC-Congress, the Bharatiya Janata Party, and a clutch of independents and smaller parties backed by entities such as the Jamaat-e-Islami Kashmir.

In 2014, the Peoples Democratic Party was the single-largest party in the assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir and went on to form the government in alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

PDP’s dependence on South Kashmir

The PDP is heavily dependent on voting in south Kashmir, the stronghold of PDP, that will set the tone. It is significant that Mehbooba Mufti, who lost the Lok Sabha election to NC from Anantnag, has opted out of the assembly polls and is instead campaigning with gusto to ensure the party stays afloat. In her place, debutant daughter Iltija Mufti has become the third generation of Mufti clan to join electoral politics, and is in a keen fight from family borough Bijbehara.

Also Read: Jammu and Kashmir Election 2024 Live: Scuffle between PDP and BJP workers in Kishtwar

Iltija Mufti takes centerstage

Contesting from the family bastion of Bijbehara, Iltija Mufti, daughter of former CM Mehbooba Mufti, has stepped into the world of politics at a time when, according to her, the PDP “is at its weakest”.

The Srigufwara-Bijbehara assembly constituency, one of the most high-profile seats in south Kashmir, is considered a stronghold of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Iltija Mufti is fighting her first political battle on the family’s home turf of Bijbehara against National Conference (NC) veteran Bashir Ahmad Shah Veeri.

Over the past few decades, the PDP has not lost any assembly poll from this seat. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the party lost the Anantnag-Rajouri parliamentary constituency, but continued to maintain a lead in the Assembly segment over NC.

Importance of Chenab valley in J&K’s overall calculus

Chenab valley’s importance grows manifold by the current political climate in the union territory, where no single party is likely to secure an outright majority. In this scenario, even a small bloc of seats can tip the scales of power, with ripple effects far beyond its geographical boundaries. The Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) is likely to benefit from two major factors – delimitation of constituencies and inherent weaknesses of its opponents but may be in for unpleasant surprises.