Heat-linked deaths in India set to rise; global study flags 9 cities, including Mumbai & Bengaluru

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Heat-linked deaths are projected to rise in nine Indian cities, including Mumbai, Delhi and Bengaluru, due to more frequent, intense and prolonged heat waves in forthcoming years, an international report said.

"Without efficacious long-term strategies, India is likely to witness a higher number of heat-related fatalities due to more frequent, intense, and prolonged heat waves in forthcoming years," cautions the study, co-authored by scholars from Sustainable Futures Collaborative, King's College London, Harvard University, Princeton University, and University of California, Berkeley.

Using climate models, the study identified nine cities—Bengaluru, Delhi, Faridabad, Gwalior, Kota, Ludhiana, Meerut, Mumbai, and Surat—with populations over 1 million (based on the 2011 Census). These cities are projected to see the most significant increases in hazardous heat index values, which combine temperature and humidity, compared to their recent historical averages.

"Mumbai, with a population of 12.4 million, is currently facing early and prolonged heatwaves. The city experiences higher temperatures during both the summer and post-monsoon periods, exacerbated by increased humidity. This heightened humidity raises the heat index value, potentially reducing the body's ability to cope with extreme heat through sweating. Maharashtra has implemented a State Heat Action Plan (HAP), and heat resilience in Mumbai is further supported by the Mumbai Climate Action Plan. The HAP outlines specific measures to be taken by relevant departments before, during, and after a heatwave," the report stated.

The analysis also found that while all nine cities have short-term emergency response measures in place, critical long-term actions are either entirely missing or poorly focused. Key interventions, including providing household cooling for those most exposed to heat, work-loss insurance coverage, improved fire management services, and upgrades to electricity grids, are notably absent in all these cities.

"In three cities - Mumbai, Bengaluru, Surat - we found the active, embedded engagement of civil society organisations over extended periods of time had the effect of focusing the bureaucracy on climate action, which suggests that more active civil society involvement is necessary to reduce state capacity deficits," the report added.