Hyperloop in India: Too early or about time?

Answer: Virgin Hyperloop.

When Elon Musk proposed the “fifth mode of transport”—a Hyperloop— in a 2013 paper ‘Hyperloop Alpha’, many raised eyebrows, albeit trying to understand the whole concept of “high speed” transportation.

Hyperloop is being pitched as a “futuristic” transportation system, where a pod or capsule would carry not more than 30 to 40 passengers at a time, travelling through a tube having near vacuum like condition, significantly reducing the time of travelling by half.

While Hyperloop India will soon unveil its pod to the world during Space X’s Hyperloop Pod Competition, to be held between August 25 and 27, 2017, experts back home are anxious about Hyperloop’s future in the country.

“Theoretically, it is possible but there is nothing on ground,” said Amit Bhatt, senior transport specialist, Embarq India, a global organisation providing sustainable urban solutions. “There is no working system”.

Also read: Zooming into the future: Hyperloop One tests pod, successfully clocks 310 kmph

“Fundamentally, no one can challenge the hypothesis (for Hyperloop’s working),” said Suresh Subudhi, partner and director, Boston Consulting Group, a management consultancy firm.

Bhatt said that universally, there is no system in place that has witnessed a functional Hyperloop and that the technology needs serious thinking before being brought to the country.

“We need to see something on ground,” he said, adding that it might be a little too early to think about such an innovation in India.

When one studies the theoretical framework of Hyperloop, key questions, including cost, safety and capacity, remain unanswered. Experts feel these need deliberation before something as ambitious as a Hyperloop can be put to reality.

Cost

Musk’s selling point for Hyperloop has been its “low cost”. Experts, however, caution that the paper talks merely about the cost of the pod, not the entire set up.

“The pods and linear motors are relatively minor expenses compared to the tube itself – several hundred million dollars at most, compared with several billion dollars for the tube. Even several billion is a low number when compared with several tens of billion proposed for the track of the California rail project” reads the paper. It has, however, left the meaning of “several billion or million” open ended.

“There are two types of cost, operational and capital. While operational cost might be less, there will be huge capital cost involved,” said Bhatt.

Subudhi said that only if India is able to handle the capital cost well, then only can Hyperloop be a reality. He said that the cost of the tunnel “reduces dramatically” as the size of the hole decreases.

“If it is cheaper than setting up an elevated expressway or horizontal expansion of roads or high speed rails, then yes, it will work,” he said.

He also opined that policy makers are concerned about “reducing the cost of capital” to keep the “Hyperloop set up operational”.

Abdul Majeed, partner, automotive, PricewaterhouseCoopers, an audit and consulting firm, said that “private guy will invest” the capital only when he sees a sustainable and realistic model in place.

He said that running a Hyperloop on solar power can ensure a long term cost savings and sustainability.

Infrastructure hassle

Hyperloop has to be built on pylon (or pillars), stretched across a distance of 1,500 kilometres, avoiding twists and turns along the route.

Musk’s paper also suggested that two pods could be shot one after the other at an interval of two minutes, while giving barely “five minutes” to the passengers, at the destination, to get out of the pod.

“Assuming an average departure time of two minutes between capsules… The current baseline requires up to 40 capsules (for United States) in activity during rush hour, six of which are at the terminals for loading and unloading of the passengers in approximately five minutes”

All of this makes Hyperloop highly “calculative” and time bound.

“India will need another three and a half to four years, possibly extending up to six, before it can have its own Hyperloop,” said Majeed. “Infrastructure is not yet out, but it is not impossible”.

When one works in near vacuum condition, a small leak can create huge disruption in the entire journey, which Bhatt said is a huge problem.

Another problem with the Hyperloop could be variation in the distance between the pod and the tunnel. Any change in the ideal ratio, known as Kantrowitz Limit, which defines minimum tunnel to pod area ratio could “choke the flow”.

Also read: Multi modal hubs, mass rapid electric transport soon: Gadkari

“This is highly problematic, as it forces you to either go slowly or have a super huge diameter tube”. Going slowly would diffuse the purpose of Hyperloop and a huge diameter would increase the cost.

“We need to look at sustainability,” said Majeed. “…We are not ready”.

Bhatt pointed out towards other problems like operational and maintenance issues, dependence on supplier in case the technology gets patented and monopoly of the manufacturer.

“The technology is in the experimental stage… It is ready at pilot scale, but the technology, I don’t think, is ready at the mass scale at the required cost,” said Subdhi.

Why the hype?

Despite such issues, the government is keen on bringing Hyperloop to India.

Experts believe that traffic congestion and cost constraint for augmenting road network are the main reasons to push for this technology.

“Transportation is a huge issue… We need to look at alternative possibilities,” said Abdul Majeed.

He said that India has just begun to expand yet it witnesses transportation hassles due to more people occupying less space, which calls for innovation.

“We can deploy Hyperloop at few places to be used at peak traffic hours,” said Majeed.

“India has skipped technology… So, we can skip technology (here as well),” said Subudhi adding “the only thing that is required is a policy in place which can support and nurture it”.

"Waiting for another 10 years, thinking we are not ready, will make us wait for 10 more years after that for their implementation," said Majeed.