Why tropical storm Imelda’s forecast changed — and what risks still remain

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Tropical Storm Imelda developed over the Bahamas on Sunday afternoon, bringing heavy rains and prompting tropical storm warnings across the central and northwestern islands. With maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, the system sat 335 miles southeast of Cape Canaveral, Florida, according to the National Hurricane Center. Rainfall between 4 and 12 inches is forecast in parts of the Bahamas and eastern Cuba, creating a risk of flash flooding, CNN reported.

Forecast track changes

Over the last 36 hours, forecasts for Imelda’s path have shifted away from a direct strike on the US Southeast coast. The storm is expected to move north, parallel to Florida’s Atlantic shoreline, before turning east into the open ocean early this week. The National Hurricane Center now anticipates Imelda will intensify into a hurricane by late Monday or Tuesday. With the updated outlook, tropical storm watches for parts of Florida’s east coast have been lifted.

Humberto’s role in steering Imelda

Hurricane Humberto, a powerful Category 4 system that briefly reached Category 5 strength Saturday, is influencing Imelda’s movement. Humberto is expected to “tug” Imelda away from the Southeast coast, preventing a direct landfall. Meteorologists caution that while the risk of severe wind impacts in the US has diminished, residents along the Southeast should still monitor forecasts.

Expected impacts in the Southeast

Even with the storm remaining offshore, coastal areas of Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas could feel its effects as early as Monday. Forecast rainfall in the coastal Carolinas has been revised downward to 2 to 6 inches, but flooding risks remain, particularly in low-lying areas. Strong winds, high surf, and beach erosion are also expected as Imelda’s wind field expands.

Emergency preparations underway

Officials in South Carolina and local governments, including the City of Charleston, have declared states of emergency and distributed sandbags in preparation. Coastal communities are bracing for storm surge, flooding rain, and strong winds despite the more favourable forecast track.

Bermuda also on alert

While not a direct threat to the US, Imelda may approach Bermuda later this week. The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a tropical storm watch as both Imelda and Humberto circulate over the Atlantic. Humberto is expected to remain a major hurricane into early this week, tracking far west of the island but still bringing gusty winds and rain.

Outlook

With Imelda expected to strengthen and turn away from the US coast, the worst-case scenario appears less likely. Still, forecasters stress the importance of caution, particularly along the Southeast coast where flooding rains, surf, and gusty winds remain possible. Residents in the Bahamas, the Carolinas, and Bermuda are advised to stay updated on official warnings.