Why Japan’s ruling party is in crisis after Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation

Shigeru Ishiba (Courtesy: Reuters photo)

Shigeru Ishiba took oath as Prime Minister a year ago with a vow to "rebuild the smiles" of a country burdened with population aging, high costs of living and geostrategic tensions. Just a year later, his premiership came to an abrupt end. He resigned on Sunday after losing two elections within a span of just ten months and facing pressure from within his own Liberal Democratic party to resign. The resignation is consistent with Japan's usual leadership transition, but Ishiba's defeat has exposed underlying vulnerabilities in the long-ruling party, the Financial Times reported.

An LDP in disarray

The LDP has held out all along by assembling conservative and moderate coalitions. That tightrope is beginning to come apart. There are two factions, one with the reformers who demand pragmatic economic reforms and a more centrist foreign policy. The other leans sharply to the right, siding with revisionist histories and nationalist ideology. Ishiba's resignation was prompted not merely by his lackluster election record but also by his failure to bring these combatant forces together. Political pundits report that internal conflicts, unresolved, promise to erode the LDP's staying power at a time when the party has already lost outright control of both chambers of parliament.

The price of succession

The focus now shifts to Ishiba's successor. Party ballot in early October will be among the most consequential leadership battles in decades. Among the top contenders is 44-year-old farm minister Shinjiro Koizumi, who is the son of former premier Junichiro Koizumi. He is considered a moderate cousin and enjoys the support of young voters and can make alliances with the centrist Japan Innovation party. His strongest opponent will be Sanae Takaichi, a staunch conservative who gets the party's right wing on their side. Supporters of Takaichi believe she is the only one with a hope of winning back voters who switched to smaller nationalist parties. She would be Japan's first female prime minister, a symbolic victory that would change the party's image if she were successful.

External pressures building

The leadership election comes at a challenging international time. Japan must maintain its position of America's closest friend in Asia while President Donald Trump has rocked the partnership by calling for more defense contributions and trade concessions. Ishiba was criticized for lacking any vision of Japan's global role and for failing to impress Trump with respect in personal diplomacy. Whomever inherits his role will need to manage this delicate relationship while ensuring Japan is able to be a stabilizing element in an ever-more unstable region where China's military designs are spreading on a continuous basis.

Economic headwinds at home

Back home, Japan is facing long-term economic challenges. Growth remains sluggish, the population remains in decline, and labor shortages continue to deepen. The reflationary "Abenomics" policies that hitherto accounted for the LDP's revival under Shinzo Abe are already starting to run out of steam. The young voters are particularly being courted by adaptive populist parties who are more adept at social media than the LDP. Restoration of trust will require more than technocratic policy fixes; it will require a leader who can inspire voters made cynical by the political class.

Risk of political obsolescence

Ishiba himself sounded the alarm that the LDP risked sinking into obsolescence if it failed to reform. If the public perceives us as the same old party, and that nothing has changed, then it will have no future," he added. Pundits are in accord that if the LDP does not bring forth a new, charismatic leader, it will relinquish its hold on power to populists. The party's intraparty postmortem after its recent loss did not target Ishiba but reached the conclusion that the LDP as a whole is increasingly out of touch with the electorate.

Why this moment matters

The leadership election is more than a party realignment; it could determine if Japan's ruling party can remake itself. Victory may restore domestic and international confidence, stabilizing Japan as a reliable partner in Asia. Failure could set the stage for even more instability, embolden populist opponents, and undermine Japan's negotiating position vis-à-vis both friends and foes. The LDP has come under test at last, after seventy years of reign, in a survival test that transcends personalities. Leadership competition this October could be either the start of its rejuvenation or the beginning of its stagnation.