Trump bets on Pakistan’s oil, envisions India as buyer: Here’s why that’s pure fantasy

File Photo - A security personnel stands guard near a Russian cargo ship carrying crude oil docked at the Karachi port in Karachi on June 28, 2023. (Photo by Rizwan TABASSUM / AFP)

At a time when US President Donald Trump is penalising India for its sovereign oil and defence trade with Russia, his sudden embrace of Pakistan – a nation with meagre oil reserves and a history of economic mismanagement – raises serious questions. In a tone dripping with irony, Trump hinted that Islamabad might “some day” sell oil to India, ignoring the fact that India not only dwarfs Pakistan in domestic reserves but also in energy infrastructure and global credibility. The so-called oil deal with Pakistan appears more like a political stunt than a strategic partnership, and New Delhi has every reason to view it with skepticism.

The fact remains that Pakistan has little to offer. The country’s crude oil reserves are not just modest, they are miniscule in comparison to India’s. Worse still, Trump’s framing of this “deal” feels more like a strategic snub to India than a genuinely viable energy partnership.

How do India and Pakistan compare in oil reserves?

Trump wants to develop “massive oil reserves” with Pakistan, and has even said that India may be end up being a potential customer. However, exactly which “massive oil reserves” he is referring to is still not clear.

Pakistan depends heavily on oil imports from the Middle East to meet its energy needs. In the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025, these imports cost the country $11.3 billion, making up the largest share of its import bill. Central bank data shows that oil accounts for about 20% of Pakistan’s total import spending.

Pakistan’s proven crude oil reserves are estimated between 234 and 353 million barrels, ranking it 50th globally, according to Reuters. In comparison, Venezuela tops the list with over 303 billion barrels, while India holds about 4.98 billion barrels -- more than 10 times Pakistan’s reserves.

ORF’s Lydia Powell noted that Pakistan holds just 0.2% of global gas reserves and an even smaller share of oil, while India has 0.3% of oil and 0.7% of gas reserves. “India consumes over 13 times more oil than Pakistan,” she said, adding the recent oil-related announcements may be politically driven.

Pakistan’s past offshore oil exploration efforts have yielded little, and despite having 9.1 billion barrels of technically recoverable shale oil (per a 2015 U.S. study), it hasn’t pursued shale extraction.

As per 2023 estimates, India’s proven oil reserves stood at approximately 4.5 billion barrels, mostly concentrated in states like Rajasthan, Gujarat, Assam, and offshore in the Mumbai high. On the contrary, Pakistan oil reserves as per 2023 estimates stood at 353 million barrels -- one-tenth of India’s.

Talking about daily production capacity, India produces around 600,000 barrels of crude oil per day, while Pakistan manages only about 80,000, and that number is declining. Despite being a net importer, India’s daily oil output is six to seven times higher than Pakistan’s.

Is Pakistan even ready to develop its oil sector?

The answer is – unlikely. Pakistan’s oil industry is weighed down by chronic underinvestment and regulatory instability; poor geological success in exploration, especially in Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa; security concerns in potential exploration zones; and a massive circular debt problem in its energy sector.

For Trump to claim that this deal will somehow turn Pakistan into a future oil supplier, possibly to India, is not only wildly optimistic, it’s detached from geological and geopolitical reality.

Trump’s push to strengthen energy ties with Pakistan, right after slapping tariffs on India, seems more like political theatre than real strategy. It looks like a warning to India for buying Russian oil, a nod to Pakistan’s military after his private lunch with Army Chief Asim Munir, and a publicity move ahead of his re-election campaign. But the truth is, Pakistan has little oil to offer, making this more about optics than substance.

India, as the world’s third-largest oil consumer and a key buyer of US energy, has no reason to take Trump’s Pakistan oil pitch seriously. Pakistan is facing a financial crisis, relies on IMF bailouts, and depends on deferred oil deals with Saudi Arabia and China. The idea that it could become an oil exporter, especially to India, is unrealistic. Meanwhile, India has strong ties with major energy players, a massive refining industry, and access to global energy markets. It simply doesn’t need Pakistan for oil.

What should worry India: Not oil, but the optics

The real concern for India isn’t the oil deal, but the optics of Trump cozying up to Pakistan right after the Pahalgam terror attack, which India blames on a Pakistan-based group. By engaging directly with Pakistan’s military and sidelining its civilian leadership, Trump signals a shift away from democratic partners and a readiness to reward bad actors for strategic gain. This isn’t the first time he’s used the “Pakistan card,” but doing so while punishing India makes it feel more pointed and provocative.