Shehbaz and Asim Munir to meet Trump today: What Pakistan hopes to achieve and why India will be watching closely

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir are set to meet US President Donald Trump on Thursday on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, in what is being billed as a routine diplomatic engagement. But this is far from routine.

Islamabad finds itself at the crossroads of competing global agendas, including Washington’s desire to reassert influence in South Asia, China’s deep economic entanglement via CPEC, and the constant shadow of Pakistan’s security state. The meeting signals that the United States may once again be extending a soft embrace to a country long accused of sponsoring terror and instability.

For India, the event is not merely symbolic. It may set the tone for how the US treats Islamabad’s longstanding transgressions and how it balances its interests in the region.

What’s behind the timing

The presence of Asim Munir, not just Sharif, is deeply telling. Inviting a country’s army chief to sit at a table with a US president is unusual in diplomatic protocol. Islamabad often operates outside normal rules. As one analysis put it, “The meeting, reportedly facilitated by Qatar and Saudi Arabia, is set to cover issues from Pakistan’s flood crisis to the fallout of Israeli actions in Qatar. Crucially, the India-Pakistan situation is also on the agenda.”

By placing Munir front and centre, the message is clear. The military, not the elected government, remains the real power centre in Pakistan’s foreign policy.

Pakistan has tried to reorient itself. On one hand, it courts Washington, perhaps to extract aid, investment, or strategic validation. On the other hand, it remains deeply tied to China through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and other strategic commitments.

Within this balancing act, Munir has floated grand visions like an “Islamic NATO” bloc, positioning Pakistan as a leader of Muslim nations under its nuclear umbrella. Analysts are already calling it a mirage. Pakistan is economically weak, its credibility is eroded, and many Muslim countries would be deeply sceptical of an overtly Pakistan-led security bloc.

The optics of these proposals help Pakistan project strategic importance to Washington. It suggests that Islamabad can marshal regional Muslim support and influence fronts like Gaza or Afghanistan. There is speculation that Trump may press Islamabad to commit to logistics support or a diplomatic role in post-war planning for Gaza and even in the Bagram base issue in Afghanistan.

What Trump is likely to press Pakistan on

Strategic positioning in the Muslim world: Washington is convening a closed-door session with select Islamic leaders in tandem with this meeting. The aim is to discuss coordinated postwar planning for Gaza, including stabilization, reconstruction support, or security guarantees.

For Pakistan, the pitch may be to help Washington exert influence in Muslim states, act as a bridge in Muslim opinion, or contribute to regional security mechanisms. The “Islamic NATO” idea could be dangled as a conceptual tool, although its real traction is doubtful.

Bagram and Afghanistan policy: Trump has made public hints about retaking Bagram airbase from the Taliban. Islamabad may be pressed to cooperate logistically, diplomatically, or in intelligence sharing. This is a dangerous gambit. The Taliban has warned that any Pakistani cooperation with the US would make Pakistan an enemy.

Economic and resource deals: Pakistan is likely to offer or negotiate access to its mineral resources. It may pitch itself as a destination for US investment, especially in mining, rare earths, energy, and critical minerals in Balochistan.

These offers are intended to sweeten the deal. Pakistan must show Washington that dealing with its military-backed regime is a viable risk.

Aid, debt, and structural support: Pakistan is in severe economic stress. Flooding, weak foreign reserves, inflation, and debt burdens are all mounting. Trump may leverage this to extract commitments on counterterrorism, intelligence cooperation, or regional stability in exchange for financial support, debt relief, or trade concessions.

India and regional security: India will loom large in the discussions. The US may prod Pakistan to tone down cross-border support for proxies and reduce provocations. Whether Pakistan actually complies is another question. Washington’s past willingness to overlook Pakistan’s role in terror networks will test India’s confidence in US intentions.

Why India will be watching very closely

When Washington treats the military as a peer, seating Munir at the table, it confers legitimacy on Pakistan’s shadow power structure. India has long accused Islamabad of using terrorism as a tool. If the US looks past that and embraces the generals, India’s strategic dilemma deepens.

If Trump prioritises access, strategic positioning, and regional optics over accountability, India fears the US may once again ignore Pakistan’s record of sponsoring non-state actors. The risk is that Pakistan continues its destabilising behaviour under the radar.

India is deepening ties with the US in technology, defence, and infrastructure. If the US begins to shift attention to Pakistan as a regional counterweight to China or as a Muslim-world interlocutor, India may find itself squeezed between competing US priorities.

For India, how Trump handles this meeting will be a litmus test. Is Washington serious about a rules-based regional order, or is it ready to make tactical compromises with a morally compromised actor for short-term gains?

Risks and hypocrisies in Pakistan’s approach

Pakistan often accuses India of aggression while harboring groups that strike across borders. It seeks US investment and validation despite its record.

Economic fragility undermines Pakistan’s claims to lead in the Muslim world. Its pitches for “Islamic NATO” are more desperate than the leadership.

Pakistan’s flirtation with the US unsettles China, its major backer. Beijing may view Islamabad’s double game as treachery.

Past US-Pakistan deals have often fizzled. If new promises do not translate into action, Islamabad risks another credibility collapse.