Peter Navarro’s role in Trump’s tariff-driven economic gamble

From prison to power, Navarro drives Trump’s disruptive tariff agenda.

Just a year ago, Peter Navarro sat in a Miami federal prison, warning he was a martyr for the MAGA cause and struggling to raise $750,000 for legal bills.

Today, he sits at the centre of US President Donald Trump’s economic policymaking, driving a sweeping tariff agenda that has rattled markets, defied conventional economic wisdom, and drawn fierce criticism from Wall Street and beyond.

Navarro’s comeback has been dramatic. His ascent to the role of senior counsellor for trade and manufacturing is not only a personal vindication but also a symbol of how Trump’s second administration has embraced aggressive economic nationalism with fewer internal checks than in his first term. Critics warn Navarro’s influence could have long-lasting repercussions for the US economy, the Washington Post reported.

An economic plan years in the making

Navarro’s hardline approach to trade was decades in the making. Early in his career, Navarro criticised tariffs, warning they could trigger global economic collapse. But after losing political races as a Democrat in San Diego, Navarro reinvented himself as an anti-China hawk, blaming Beijing for the loss of American jobs.

His book Death by China, despite relying on fabricated sources, caught the eye of Jared Kushner during Trump’s first campaign. Navarro quickly became Trump’s trade whisperer, helping draft the "America First" economic platform that eventually led to the first round of tariffs on China.

In Trump's second administration, Navarro has found fewer obstacles to his agenda. Key rivals from the first term, such as Steven Mnuchin and Gary Cohn, are no longer present to moderate his influence. Instead, Navarro has helped steer massive tariff hikes, culminating in Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” announcement of 145% tariffs on Chinese goods.

Economic warnings mount, but Trump backs Navarro

Economists have widely condemned Navarro’s policies. Mark Zandi of Moody’s called the tariff plan “egregiously bad,” predicting it could severely damage the economy regardless of any short-term gains. Former economic officials like Gary Cohn and R. Glenn Hubbard have echoed similar concerns, warning of higher consumer prices, disrupted supply chains, and slower economic growth.

Despite these warnings, Trump remains steadfast in his support. Navarro’s worldview dovetails with Trump's long-held beliefs about trade and economic sovereignty, creating a powerful synergy at the top of the administration. “This is not Peter Navarro’s agenda,” said Steve Bannon, a longtime Trump ally. “This is Donald Trump’s core conviction.”

Legal troubles and loyalty cement Navarro’s position

Navarro’s loyalty to Trump was sealed during the fallout from the 2020 election. As the architect of the failed “Green Bay Sweep” strategy to overturn election results, Navarro refused to

cooperate with the January 6 committee, resulting in a contempt of Congress conviction and a four-month prison sentence.

Upon release, Navarro was greeted as a hero at the Republican National Convention, framing his legal ordeal as a badge of honour and a rallying cry against Democrats. Trump rewarded his loyalty by elevating him to a senior White House role, placing him in charge of trade and manufacturing policy at a critical moment.

A turbulent start to the tariff war

Navarro’s influence is already shaping real-world outcomes. The tariff hikes, aimed at both China and allies, have triggered stock market volatility and drawn rebukes even from Republican lawmakers. Under his guidance, the administration closed key trade loopholes and aggressively targeted imports, including electronics and consumer goods.

Still, Trump has occasionally moderated Navarro’s harsher proposals under pressure from business leaders and Cabinet officials. For example, Apple CEO Tim Cook successfully lobbied Trump to exempt electronics from immediate tariffs, despite Navarro’s opposition.

Navarro’s confrontations have spilled into the public sphere. After criticizing Elon Musk and Tesla’s reliance on Chinese supply chains, Navarro became the target of Musk’s social media tirades, who labelled him a "moron" and “dumber than a sack of bricks.” Undeterred, Navarro brushed off the insults, insisting their relationship remains “great.”

Navarro’s impact on the future

The US is now imposing historically high tariffs in an economic confrontation with China that shows no signs of easing. Navarro has advocated not only for these moves but also for the broader reshaping of the global trade order to favour domestic manufacturing at nearly any cost.

While some of Navarro’s most extreme measures have been delayed or softened, his ongoing influence signals that the second Trump administration is willing to gamble America’s economic future on an aggressive, nationalist trade policy few economists support.

Navarro, who once warned that protectionist wars could trigger economic ruin, now stands as one of the most powerful architects of one.