Islamabad’s worst nightmare unfolds: How TTP is fighting to transform Pakistan into Taliban-style Islamic state

Pakistan is watching its own creation turn into its worst nightmare. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), once a loosely managed militant asset in Islamabad’s strategic playbook, has now evolved into a full-fledged insurgency that seeks to overthrow the Pakistani government and replace it with a brutal Islamic emirate modelled after the Taliban regime in Kabul.

With growing coordination between the Afghan Taliban and the TTP, and cross-border attacks killing scores of Pakistani troops, Islamabad faces an existential threat of its own making. The very ideology it once exported for “strategic depth” in Afghanistan now burns at home, and Pakistan’s denials, bluster, and blame-shifting can no longer hide its loss of control.

Latest developments

Fighting escalated sharply after explosions in Kabul and Paktika prompted Afghan authorities to accuse Pakistan of carrying out strikes on Afghan soil. Islamabad denied or refused to confirm involvement, while Kabul vowed to retaliate. Intense clashes erupted across several stretches of the border over the weekend and continued on the intervening night of October 14–15. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said Pakistani forces attacked Spin Boldak in Kandahar, forcing Afghan troops to respond. He claimed Afghan forces killed “several Pakistani aggressor soldiers,” captured multiple posts, and seized weapons, including tanks. Mujahid also alleged that “more than 12 civilians were martyred and over 100 injured” in Pakistani attacks. Pakistan dismissed those accusations, saying it had repelled Taliban assaults, suffered some casualties, and inflicted heavy losses on the Afghan side. Border crossings at Chaman and Torkham have been closed as tensions remain high.

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While Islamabad insists its military “repulsed cowardly attacks,” security analysts say the situation is spiralling beyond routine border skirmishes. Inside Pakistan, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, operating primarily from Afghan soil, has stepped up ambushes, IED strikes, and cross-border raids in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The TTP remains the most active militant actor along the border, directly challenging Pakistan’s writ in multiple tribal districts.

Why the conflict centres on TTP

Although Islamabad portrays the clashes as a border control problem, the real conflict is rooted in Pakistan’s long and failed attempt to manipulate jihadist groups for political ends. The Afghan Taliban and the TTP share ideological DNA, tactical linkages, and leadership networks. The TTP has used Afghanistan as its base of operations since the Taliban’s 2021 return to power, while Kabul has looked the other way or quietly tolerated their presence to counter Pakistan’s interference.

For Pakistan’s generals, who once believed they could control militant proxies at will, this is poetic justice. “The Taliban regime in Afghanistan has provided a morale boost and ideological validation to the TTP,” noted PRIF researcher Dr. Christian Wagner. The TTP, in turn, has declared open war on the Pakistani state, escalating attacks on army convoys, police stations, and Chinese investment projects.

What the TTP wants from Pakistan

At its core, the TTP’s campaign is not about border grievances; it is about revolution. The group’s leadership has openly demanded that Pakistan be transformed into an Islamic caliphate governed by its interpretation of Sharia law. The TTP’s objectives include overthrowing Pakistan’s democratic system and replacing it with a Taliban-style theocracy. It seeks to reverse the 2018 merger of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas into Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and reestablish autonomous Sharia-run regions. It also demands the withdrawal of the Pakistani military from tribal districts and the release of imprisoned TTP fighters, along with amnesty for their leaders.

The TTP rejects Western influence and sees the Pakistani state itself as corrupt and un-Islamic. Their manifesto envisions a Pakistan ruled entirely under their definition of Islam, with draconian social codes, curtailed rights for women and minorities, and censorship of media and education. “We want Pakistan to be governed by an Islamic system, not by man-made laws,” a TTP commander told local media last year. That statement captures the essence of the group’s ambition to replicate Afghanistan’s Taliban regime inside Pakistan.

Pakistan’s Frankenstein problem

The cruel irony is that the TTP was born from Pakistan’s own military strategy. In the early 2000s, the ISI nurtured jihadist groups across the tribal belt as leverage in Afghanistan. These networks later fused into the TTP in 2007 after Pakistan’s military stormed the Lal Masjid in Islamabad. Since then, the TTP has become a hydra-headed insurgency that Pakistan cannot control or co-opt.

Today, that monster has turned on its master. As ACLED’s conflict data shows, TTP-led violence surged by over 70 percent in 2024, targeting Pakistani troops with growing precision and reach. “Islamabad is facing the same militant ecosystem it once fostered,” said Dr Rahmatullah Amiri, an Afghan security analyst, adding that Pakistan’s doctrine of strategic depth has collapsed under its own contradictions.

Even as Pakistan tries to externalise blame and threaten Kabul, its military remains overstretched, battling both domestic insurgency and diplomatic isolation. The TTP’s call for a Sharia-based caliphate has not only undermined Pakistan’s internal stability but also exposed its hollow claims of being a victim of terrorism when it has long been an architect of the very forces now consuming it.